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Changes in the Japanese Ministry of Finance to Weaken Yen?
By RalphShell about 18 hour(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  61 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
The downing of the Malaysian jet over the Ukraine last week, resulted in safe haven seekers caused the JPY to appreciate to 101.14.  After the one day flurry, the yen then weakened to about 101.90.   Quickly the conditioned reflex buying by the mob turned unprofitable. There were some weaker numbers that helped the yen bears.  The Japanese trade balance for the 1H of 2014 was slightly better than anticipated -1.08T¥, but still bigger than the -0.86T ¥ in the  ...
Euro Sinks Under the 1.35 Support - What Next? Euro Sinks Under the 1.35 Support - What Next?
By RalphShell about 3 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  148 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
After flirting with the lower side of the 1.35 handle, numerous times, the bears finally emerged victorious.  The timing of this down side break is surprising for several reasons.  First, it is rare to see the majority of the traders prove to be right.  The latest COT futures report showed specs to be short a recent record 106,200 contracts of euro futures and delta related options.  Usually a market this concentrated on one side, gets at least one scare, but so far not this ...
Winners - FxPro Forex Demo Trading Account Contest Winners - FxPro Forex Demo Trading Account Contest
By RazorAdmin about 3 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  106 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
Congratulations! The Winners of the FxPro Demo Trading Contest have been officially declared and you can see the final rankings, including the top 10, on the rankings page. The contest was a great success and attracted 1, 462 participants - thank you for taking part and congratulations to our Winners. Click to Enlarge Winners List Become a trading champion by competing in the Excel Markets-sponsored AUGUST trading contest with $2,500 USD in CASH prizes, 10 winners, and $...
Currency Traders Busy Buying Commodity Currencies Currency Traders Busy Buying Commodity Currencies
By RalphShell about 4 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  265 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
Commodity speculators increased their long position in the so called commodity currencies.  Commodity currencies are the Canadian, Australian and the New Zealand Dollar.  Their total net long has grown to 84,185 contracts, the largest combined long position for over a year.  The largest position is in the Australian where specs are now long 42.9K.  The biggest change for the week was in the C$ where specs increased their long from 9.4K to 25.9K.   To date  purc...
When Will Markets Shake the Summer Doldrums? When Will Markets Shake the Summer Doldrums?
By RalphShell about 9 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  214 Views  •  Article Rating1 Ratings
U.S. stocks are now about 80% overvalued on certain key long-term measures, according to research by financial consultant Andrew Smithers, the chairman of Smithers & Co. and one of the few to warn about the bubble of the late 1990s at the time. The din from the repetitive Central Banker chatter is annoying.  Their assumption that, should they provide sufficient liquidity, a healthy, vibrant global economy will follow.  Granted, all economies are not equal, and there will be leaders...
Specs Continue to Sell the Euro and the Yen Against the USD Specs Continue to Sell the Euro and the Yen Against the USD
By RalphShell about 12 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  207 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
The latest COT Report dated July 8, 2014 reveals specs remain bearish in the euro and the yen.  The net short spec position in the euro is up to 101.5K contracts, the largest short position yet.  In the yen specs had been covering their short but in the past period, they reversed this tactic.  In this period, they added about 12.5K taking their short back up to almost 88K contracts.  The other large spec position is in the pound where they have been long.  Recently specs...
Poor Canadian Employment Numbers Jolt the Loonie Poor Canadian Employment Numbers Jolt the Loonie
By RalphShell about 14 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  315 Views  •  Article Rating1 Ratings
Finally, the Canadian Dollar futures specs, after holding short positions in the loonie for over a year, migrated to the long side, only to be betrayed by some poor employment numbers.  The trade was anticipating 20K new hires for the month, but the loss of 9.4K jobs shocked the market.  For the C$, which had recently appreciated from 1.09 versus the USD to 1.0620, the market was unprepared.  Quickly, the USDCAD (FXC, UUP, UDN) raced from 1.0630 past the 1.07 handle.  The...
Changes in Central Bank Reserve Currencies
By RalphShell about 17 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  146 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
Every Quarter the IMF issues a report called the Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves, or the COFER Report.  The most recent report was updated  June 30, 2014.  Currently there are 146 reporting entities who report this data on a strictly confidential basis.  A reporting party may be "member countries of the IMF, non-member countries/economies, and other foreign exchanges reserve holding entities." Ownership of these exchange reserves is shown in thre...
Did Last week's Data Give Us Any Clues For the Euro's Direction? Did Last week's Data Give Us Any Clues For the Euro's Direction?
By RalphShell about 21 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  552 Views  •  Article Rating1 Ratings
It was a busy week for economic data from both Europe and the US, compressed into a holiday-shortened week.  The initial market judgement is that the constructive US NFP report was a far more decisive input than Draghi's promise to take future measures, should last month's monetary changes fail to ignite an EU recovery. The pundit's average guess was 215K new NFP employees, but the number released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was 288K.  This was a much needed boost for the Wash...
Will the Canadian Dollar Rally Continue? Will the Canadian Dollar Rally Continue?
By RalphShell about 23 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  262 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
During the last six weeks we have seen steady gains in the CAD versus the USD.  When we looked at the C$ on May 20th, the USDCAD was trading around the 1.09 handle, and we felt the CAD would gain.  After churning around the 1.09 level the USD gradually lost ground, making a low of 1.0627, and is now trading at about 1.0670.  Part of the loonie strength can be attributed to USD weakness.  The US recovery is sputtering, and the currency markets fear US interest rates will remai...
Speculators Maintain USD Long - COT Report 24 June 2014
By RalphShell about 25 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  224 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
In spite of recent evidence the US economic recovery is faltering, the specs have maintained their long USD positions.  The biggest positions versus the USD are short euro and yen positions.   The short euro was up to 94.6K and the short yen was up to 98.4K.  Since the cut off date for this report, both the yen and the euro have gained modestly on the USD, so we would look for a reduction in these positions next week. The biggest long was in the pound, although there was a...
Will the Summer USD Sale Continue? Will the Summer USD Sale Continue?
By RalphShell about 28 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  307 Views  •  Article Rating1 Ratings
It would appear we have started a summer sale in the USD.  To date, the markdown has been modest but a number of reports are pending in the holiday-shortened week, so this could change.  The Tuesday 24th economic news was positive with new home sales better than expected, 504K versus 439K and the previous period 425K.  The Consumer Confidence went up to 85.2% from 82.2% in the previous period.  The following day the data turned ugly.  The GDP for 1Q was a negative 2....
Pound Fails to Gain Despite Poor US Numbers Pound Fails to Gain Despite Poor US Numbers
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  199 Views  •  Article Rating1 Ratings
Good traders do not make a market judgement based upon the news.  Rather, they judge a market by how it responds in relation to the news.  If, for example, a market is given a healthy dose of bullish news, and then rises, only to falter later in the trading session, this is meaningful input to the experienced trader.  It probably means the good news had been anticipated by the market and priced accordingly. Obviously, when trading pairs in forex markets, bearish news for one si...
The Pound's Bull Run is Going to Pause The Pound's Bull Run is Going to Pause
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  407 Views  •  Article Rating1 Ratings
It has been a solid bull run for the pound during the last year.  The low 1.4813 was in June of 2013, and the rally carried up over 2000 pips to over 1.70.  For the numerous British pensioners living in Ireland, Spain and other locations, this has been one dandy year.  But has this rally become over-extended? The last thrust above the 1.70 handle occurred when Bank of England Governor had publicly mused that an increase in the bank rate might come sooner than expected. Today i...
Specs Reduce USD Long Positions - COT Report 17 June 2014 Specs Reduce USD Long Positions - COT Report 17 June 2014
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  185 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
There were some shifting positions during the week resulting in a reduction of the USD long to 114,201 contracts.  This is down from 140,495 contracts in the last period.   The British Pound in now the favorite of the spec crowd with the long position going up to 71.3K, from 52.5K last week.  The biggest short position is in the yen, 96.1K.  In the prior week the short position was 114.8K, so this resulted in USD selling as the short yen was covered. Commodity currenc...
Can PM Abe's Financial Balm Overcome Negative Demography?
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  261 Views  •  Article Rating1 Ratings
Japanese PM Abe has postponed his victory lap, as the author of a policy that has overcome the demon deflation which has plagued Japan for decades.  We will get another assessment of the program's success on the 26th of June we will get new CPI numbers.  It is anticipated the Tokyo CPI will be up 3.1%, the same as the previous month.  For all of Japan, the CPI excluding food and energy the number is projected to be up 1.9%, the same as last month. Earlier, it was reported the G...
Euro Trying to Mount a Comeback Euro Trying to Mount a Comeback
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  296 Views  •  Article Rating1 Ratings
The EURUSD pair, after failing to take out the 1.35 handle, has been trying to mount a comeback and is now on the cusp of the 1.36 number.  Judging from the futures market, the trade is not brisk.  On Tuesday the 17th of June, the CME futures volume was 113K contracts, only 30% of the 377K contracts open.  On days when traders are getting a collective epiphany that a change in market direction might be close, the daily volume in an actively-traded contract can be 150% of the...
Specs Heavy Euro Sellers | COT Report 10 June 2014 Specs Heavy Euro Sellers | COT Report 10 June 2014
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  166 Views  •  Article Rating1 Ratings
Specs continued to lean heavily on the euro, and increased their total net short position from 61.8K to 88.5K.  The total OI in the euro climbed to 379K, up from 342K last week.   Part of the growth in the OI is preparation for the expiration of the June contract the end of this week.  Growth in the OI during the expiring weeks is an indicator many market participants plan to roll existing positions forward to the next major contract.  This is also reflected by the growth ...
Is the Australian Dollar Move Over, or Merely Beginning? Is the Australian Dollar Move Over, or Merely Beginning?
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  1274 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
For months, market analysts have been touting the slowing Chinese economy and the negative impact it will have on the much smaller Australian economy.  Since China is the biggest market for Australian iron ore, and a big buyer of coal this story has had some legs.  This, however, is old news.  Markets look toward the future, and continually assess the impact of anticipated future events.  Rarely do markets discount the same future event twice.  This helps explain the old...
Euro Rally Fails - Trade is Heavy Euro Rally Fails - Trade is Heavy
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  491 Views  •  Article Rating1 Ratings
The reversal in the EURUSD on the day of the ECB report proved to be just another bullish fantasy.  On Friday, the rally failed.  Absence of friendly weekend news then resulted in heavy Monday selling.  The total Monday trade in futures at the CME was 226K, less than the Thursday report day, but the OI showed a sharp increase of 15.5K contracts; this confirms the short specs are increasing their bet for a lower market. Monetary easing by the ECB was the big market mover last we...
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