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Are We Close to Selling the USD?
By RalphShell | 8:13 PM May 17 2013 | 0 Comments |  (Ratings: 0)
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It has been a great week for the USD as it gained against all the majors. The New Zealand Dollar was the last market where the futures traders were long. Early in the week, the kiwi bought .8316 cents per USD, but by the end of the week it was down under the 81 handle. Should the w...
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How to Get with a Streaking Market
By RalphShell | 6:27 PM May 16 2013 | 1 Comments |  (Ratings: 1)
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There is nothing more discouraging to a trader than to correctly analyze a market, and then watch it streak away without you. Markets often have false starts, and then settle back to the congestion area where they started. Buying the break out with an appropriate money market stop often ...
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Is Cheaper Crude Weakening the Canadian Dollar?
By RalphShell | 6:09 PM May 15 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 0)
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For the fifth day in a row, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude traded lower - under 93 for the June contract. Granted, there is much more to the Canadian economy than energy, but it is the biggest source of export revenue. The Alberta oil sands are estimated to be the third largest rese...
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How Does Italy Feel About German Exceptionalism?
By RalphShell | 6:21 PM May 14 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 0)
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Last weekend I ran into an interesting article in The Economist entitled Mend the Money Machine. The article refers to the shortage of European bank funds to finance small and medium sized business in Southern Europe; this magazine is a bit haughty, but this article seems to present a va...
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CFTC COT Report 07 May 2013 - Speculators Increase USD Longs
By RalphShell | 1:13 PM May 13 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 0)
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CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report 07 May, published 10 May 2013 - Technical Analysis. In the most recent COT reporting period, the specs have increased their net USD spec long position from 292.3K to 316.7K. Spec short positions were increased in the pound, euro, and yen. Th...
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Week Closes With Some Decisive Forex Moves
By RalphShell | 9:09 PM May 10 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 0)
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Yesterday, Thursday 09 May 2013, we were lamenting the lack of decisive moves, especially in the euro and the yen. What a difference a day makes.
In the euro, we did note that trade was becoming congested with triangular trendlines converging. Usually, that formation can result...
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Range Bound Trade Confusing to Traders of the Yen and the Euro
By RalphShell | 6:51 PM May 09 2013 | 1 Comments | (Ratings: 0)
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Since the EURUSD (FXE, UUP) made a spike low of about 1.2850 in early April, the euro has forged a steady recovery. It has not been dramatic, but the bears have paid a price. The short side of this pair has been popular with specs. In the futures market, the COT report showed the s...
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Not Every Trade Makes Money
By RalphShell | 4:35 PM May 08 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 0)
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How true it is: not every trade does make money. Traders, after analysis of various inputs, reach a conclusion, and enter the trade. The analysis can include a myriad of inputs. Initially, most traders tend to rely on technical analysis, probably because it is easier to get a rudim...
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CFTC COT Report 30 April 2013 - Specs Liquidate USD Longs
By RalphShell | 5:10 PM May 07 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 0)
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CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report 30 April, published 03 May 2013 - Technical Analysis. There was near-unanimous liquidation by selling in the USD longs in all the contracts we review except the SF, and the New Zealand USD. Selling of the USD by those previously short in the pound...
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Currency Markets Digest the Non Farm Payroll Report
By RalphShell | 7:19 AM May 04 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 0)
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Once again the US Labor Department delivers a surprise in the most recent NFP report. Following last month's low number, the experts all reduced their guesses for the new report and, of course, the number at 165K new hires exceeds all expectations. The unemployment rate slipped to 7.5%, ...
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Forex Markets Require Agility Today
By RalphShell | 7:56 PM May 02 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 0)
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There has been a steady stream of meaningful reports that has resulted in a lively trading session. We started the day with seven European PMI's. Although the numbers from Germany, Italy and a few other countries were moderately positive, there was nothing exciting in the PMI's.
Late...
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Is it Time for the USD to Lose to the Yen?
By RalphShell | 7:29 PM May 01 2013 | 1 Comments |  (Ratings: 1)
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Selling the yen has been a big winner this year.
Actually, the move commenced in October when traders began to recognize the new Prime Minister might be Abe, a proponent of aggressive monetary expansion. For years the Japanese had been trapped in a deflationary spiral and no economic...
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Will the USD Losses to the Euro and the Pound Continue?
By RalphShell | 8:38 AM May 01 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 1)
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The trade on the final day of the month should always be judged with suspicion. For those who have an accounting period coinciding with the end of the month, the trade today can be especially important. Open positions will be 'marked-to-market' and trading performance will determine the ...
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CFTC COT Report 23 April 2013 - Speculators Add to USD Long
By RalphShell | 10:11 AM Apr 29 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 1)
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CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report 23 April, published 26 April 2013 - Technical Analysis. The speculators net long in the USD increased last week to 328K contracts, up from 300K in the prior week. Most of the change came from selling in the Australian Dollar versus the USD. ...
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Building a Forex Position
By RalphShell | 6:27 AM Apr 27 2013 | 2 Comments | (Ratings: 1)
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Commenting this week on our website, a trader was celebrating because his long GDP/USD, that he had built over the past few weeks, was paying off. In my opinion, the money you make from building and holding a position over a period of time is money you well deserve. During the period whe...
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Euro Strays Away From Fair Value - Briefly
By RalphShell | 6:06 PM Apr 25 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 2)
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If you don't like this price, wait, because it will change.
That is how the euro has been trading today. Early in today's session, the Euro was working higher, perhaps because Angela Merkel said higher interest rates were good for Germany. Trade in the euro had been weaker, ant...
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Will the Big Pound Short Position Prove To Be Correct?
By RalphShell | 6:30 PM Apr 24 2013 | 8 Comments | (Ratings: 1)
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Tomorrow at 9:30 a.m. we will find if the UK avoided slipping back into another recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of a contraction in the GDP. Last quarter, their GDP was a negative 0.3%. This quarter the average guess is a positive 0.1%, so there is very little margin for e...
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Is the Euro Priced Right at 1.30?
By RalphShell | 5:37 PM Apr 23 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 1)
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Years ago a veteran trader, well into his eighth decade, gave me an order to buy a 100 contracts of Kansas City wheat. Though grateful for the order, I wanted to make sure this old boy was still lucid because the wheat market had been going nowhere. So I asked him to confirm the order an...
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CFTC COT Report 16 April 2013 | Speculative Buying in the Euro
By RalphShell | 2:49 PM Apr 22 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 0)
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CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report 16 April, published 19 April 2013 - Technical Analysis. There was aggressive buying in the euro during the latest period. We suspected the run up to the 1.32 level on the 16th of April was short-covering, and the market has subsequently reversed.&...
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Bank of Japan's Kuroda Goes to Washington
By RalphShell | 3:30 PM Apr 19 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 0)
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How has the rookie Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda been received at his first G20 meeting in Washington this week? Kuroda was appointed by PM Abe in March at which time he claimed his goal was to end deflation. Rather, an inflation rate of 2% was to be achieved in two years, a sha...
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The Euro Takes a Dive
By RalphShell | 6:40 PM Apr 17 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 0)
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After chasing out euro shorts yesterday, running the EURUSD well above the recent recovery to a new high slightly above 1.32, the pair has reversed today. The euro's behavior had been baffling, considering the weak economy, the arrogant ending to the Cyprus crisis, and the increasing European ...
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Currency and Commodity Trading in Turbulent Times
By RalphShell | 7:09 PM Apr 16 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 0)
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After witnessing on my screen the market's wild fluctuations, then viewing on TV the tragic events in Boston, the word turbulent came to mind. The Reference.com definition is as follows: being in a state of agitation or tumult: disturbed; characterized by, or showing disturbance, disorder; give...
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CFTC COT Report 9 April 2013 - Speculators Reduce USD Long
By RalphShell | 11:04 AM Apr 15 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 0)
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CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report 09 April, published 13 April 2013 - Technical Analysis. When all the numbers are tallied, the spec, in the major currencies covered, reduced his USD long position by some 22K contracts. Considering the total amount of trade in the currency market,...
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Is Japanese Wealth Heading to Australia?
By RalphShell | 9:37 AM Apr 13 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 0)
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By now, Japanese savers have been fairly warned that their savings - the portion not invested in Japanese stocks - had best be parked elsewhere. The Japanese have trillions of dollars of savings, so where is the accumulated wealth to be allocated while PM Abe and friends flood the markets with...
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How Important Are Your Friday Trades?
By RalphShell | 5:52 PM Apr 11 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 4)
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Are trades you make on one day of the week more important than another day? Why should there be any difference, you might ask, when the trading is done online, and the day should not really matter? The market opens early Monday in the Asian market, which equates to 22h00 or 23h00 Sunday ...
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Which Way for the Loonie?
By RalphShell | 7:48 AM Apr 11 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 0)
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Whether the Canadians like it or not, their economy and that of the US are bound together, though not with a single currency. The under-performing countries in Europe are locked into a single currency, unable to recovery from a competitive disvantage with a weaker exchange rate. Consider...
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CFTC COT Report 02 April 2013 - Speculators Buy More Dollars
By RalphShell | 2:15 PM Apr 08 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 0)
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CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report 02 April, published 05 April 2013 - Technical Analysis. Speculators increased their aggregate net position in the USD to 338,399 contracts, up from 322,132 in the previous week. Almost all of the increase was caused by additional short selling in ...
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US Economic Data Continues to Dissapoint
By RalphShell | 8:10 PM Apr 05 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 0)
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Today's NFP Report continued a string of US reports that fell short of expectations. According to this report, only 88K jobs were created in March, far less than the 190K estimated. They did upwardly adjust the February numbers from 236 to 268, and the Jan number went up from 119K to 148...
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Markets Busy on Central Bankers' Day
By RalphShell | 7:23 PM Apr 04 2013 | 0 Comments | (Ratings: 0)
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Today, Thursday, was an especially busy day for the Central Bankers. At 6.30 a.m., London time, the new BOJ Governor Kuroda gave the first Central Bankers' Day report. Recently there had been skeptics, fearful the Bank of Japan might revert to the previous timid policies. This, acc...
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A Forex Trade for End of Week
By RalphShell | 7:01 PM Apr 03 2013 | 0 Comments |  (Ratings: 2)
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Recent economic numbers from the US suggests the recovery may not be as rosy as desired. This string of disappointments began with the US durable goods report, and goes from there to numerous US economic reports that fall short of expectations. Today, we had the USD ADP Employment Change...
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