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When Does the Euro Break Out of its Range?
By RalphShell about 1 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  76 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
Last week the Ukrainian leaders in Kiev decided they needed to take military action to dispel Russian sympathizers who had taken possession of government buildings near the Russian border in the town of Kramatorsh.  Six Ukrainian armed personal carriers were dispatched to the border, to reclaim buildings occupied by either Russians or their friends. The plan did not work.  The occupants of the tanks were ill prepared for the four day trip and arrived at Kramatorsh tired, hungry and ...
Winners - Excel Markets Forex Demo Trading Account Contest Winners - Excel Markets Forex Demo Trading Account Contest
By ForexRazor about 1 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  70 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
Congratulations! The Winners of the Excel Markets 3-Month Demo Account Trading Contest have been officially declared and you can see the final rankings, including the top 10, on the rankings page. We do still have people trading mutltiple accounts but numbers engaged in this activity are reducing with each contest. It is clear that Razor contestants are getting firmly to grips with the practicalities of trading drawdown, and we are confident that our commitment - alongside our sponsoring b...
Australian Dollar Speculators Finally Try the Long Side - COT Report 08 April 2014
By RalphShell about 3 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  335 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
It has been a long time since the speculators have tried the long side of the Australian Dollar.  Their short position dates back to the fall of 2013 when the macroeconomic players decided the coming Chinese slow down would decimate the Australian economy.  This of course might still happen, but it takes a very long time until changing price or policies can result in economic change. The speculative selling did work for a while as the bears piled on.  Their biggest position was a...
Interesting Weekend Comments by the ECB President
By RalphShell about 4 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  191 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
The weekend edition of the London Telegraph reported Draghi was speaking about the euro's value at a Saturday meeting of the IMF.  The Telegraph reported: "ECB will unleash stimulus if euro strengthens further ... Central bank president says any additional strengthening of single currency would warrant non-standard measures such as quantitative easing. Further strengthening of the euro will prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to launch a fresh wave of stimulus in order to maintain ...
Yen Buying May be Pressuring the USD
By RalphShell about 6 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  144 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
It has been a very busy trading week for many asset classes.  One of the main catalysts was the Fed's attempt to tame their rhetoric, when they said the interest rates would start to go up in about six months after tapering ended.  Traders figured this would be by the spring or summer of 2015, so best to take profits on the long debt positions in front of the rate increases. The impact of this loose talk from the Fed has been comprehensive.  The liquidity which was provided by ...
Canadian Dollar Looking For Direction
By RalphShell about 9 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  324 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
Today (Tuesday April 8th) the Canadian Dollar shrugged off some disappointing fundamental information and held its own versus the USD.  After the cold winter, it had been assumed housing starts would stage a strong monthly gain but such was not the case.  The starts were forecast at 156.8K down from the anticipated 192, and last month's 190.6.  Remember, this is a monthly number of initial housing construction, which is then multiplied by twelve, to arrive at an annual rate.&n...
Yen Sold Aggressively by Speculators | COT Report 01 April 2014
By RalphShell about 10 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  325 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
There was a 17% increase in the OI for the period as speculators aggressively sold the yen.  The total number of short contracts increased from 100,116 contracts to 122,640. the heavy yen selling helped take the number of yen needed to buy a USD above the 104 handle.  The inability of the pair to hold above the 104 level since the end of the period is probably resulting in some spec yen buying. The net speculator position remain long the USD by 75,200 contracts.  This is up fro...
What is Next for the Kiwi?
By RalphShell about 14 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  240 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
The New Zealand Dollar otherwise known as the Kiwi, has rallied smartly, up about 650 pips between February and April 1.  Since achieving the high on April 1, the NZDUSD has retreated.  It is currently trading around .8540.  During this period, there was significant growth in the outstanding OI.  From a low of 23K contracts at the beginning of the period , it went to 33K in the last report.  Money flowed into the market, expanded the total OI, and took the market higher....
Busy Week For Data Releases Should Result in Forex Volatility
By RalphShell about 16 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  237 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
The first week of every month is usually one of increased volatility for the forex market.  Friday's US NFP Report is the highlight of the week, but there are other significant reports.  An example might be the reports coming from Britain which will impact the pound.  These reports began today with the M/M Manufacturing PMI Report.  This report fell short of expectations, 55.3 down from last months 56.9, and the expected 56.7.  While the report has some importance, m...
Canadian Dollar Short Being Covered by Specs | COT Report 25 March 2014
By RalphShell about 17 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  332 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
Both size spec groups have been short a large number of Canadian Dollar contracts since November 2013.  The maximum short was almost 87K contracts during the period ended January 24th 2014.  Specs still retain their short C$, but the position has been reduced to 49.7K contracts from the previous weeks 55.4.  After making a USD high versus the C$ at 1.1267 on March 20th, the C$ has since reversed.  It is now trading a couple hundred pips stronger next to the USD.  The...
Is Mrs Watanabe Buying Gold?
By RalphShell about 20 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  611 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
Implementation of the Japanese consumption tax, from 5% to 8%, is going to commence on April 1st, another phase of Abenomics.  Attempting to reverse two decades of deflation, PM Abe has aggressively expanded the government's deficit spending.  The goal is a 2% inflation rate. Critics of the new economic plan have rightly observed  tax revenues are less than 45% of expenditures.  The Japanese accumulated sovereign debt is over 230% of the GDP.  Perhaps economic growth ...
Where Have All the Aussie Traders Gone? Part 2
By RalphShell about 22 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  421 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
Part 1, the saga of the missing Aussie traders, was written on February 18th.  Then, we noted there was a decline in the trading activity of the Australian Dollar at the CME futures markets, and the AUDUSD had just rallied from .86 to above .90.  With the advantage of 20/20 hindsight we can confirm the market was over-extended on the short side.  The result was a short-covering rally.  Another month has passed and it produced another month of bearish disillusionment. The i...
Speculators Dump the USD - COT Report 18 March 2014
By RalphShell about 24 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  373 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
Speculators made the biggest reduction in their net USD position since the week of September 24th 2013.  Specs are still net long the USD, but the position has been reduced from 163.9K to  69.3K.  Since this is an aggregate net position, we must examine the components that contribute to this number. The largest speculative net position has been in the Japanese yen.  It remains the largest speculative short at 85.8K, but it is down from 132K in the previous report.  De...
What if the Ukrainian Crisis Gets Worse?
By RalphShell about 27 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  385 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
Barely three weeks have gone by since the Russian annexed Crimea and markets are again moving higher.  Granted, equities and currencies were spooked for a couple of days after the Fed's Rookie Chairman Yellen disclosed too much information at her first solo press conference.  A review of some of the Greenspan conference techniques might be needed so future sessions will contain the proper amount of ambiguity.   Next week's pending fundamentals which, in the US, includes t...
Will Better US Current Account Balances Become a Mega Trend?
By RalphShell about 29 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  923 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
It seems hard to believe markets can be cheered by a quarterly current deficit of $-81.1B but, then again, everything is relative.  That is what was reported Wednesday for the 4th quarter 2013 US current account.  Remember, the current account balance is a summery of the goods and services exported minus the imports of the same categories. No doubt the $81.1B current account deficit is a large number but this quarters current account balance is the smallest since 1999.  Further...
Did the Russians Dump Their US Treasuries?
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  240 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
A US Government report released last week showed there was a record reduction – $104.5B of US debt held by the Fed – which had been sold.  The Fed remains the custodial holder for $2,855T of US Debt, so the run on the Fed is far from complete, but this was a record weekly reduction. Russia seems to be the likely candidate to make such a withdrawal.  Their currency reserves were rumored to be in the neighborhood of $500B, and their US Treasury holdings were reported to be...
Speculators Sell the Japanese Yen - COT Report 11 March 2014
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  522 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
Specs added to their short yen position taking their total short back up to 132K. Overall there was little change in the net USD long, 164K versus 164.2K in the previous week. Since the net USD position was about unchanged, this means there had to be some USD selling to balance the buying versus the yen - this occurred in the Euro and the SF. The net of the trades really resulted in buying of the euro and SF, and selling of the yen. Since the cut-off date for this report, the yen has been...
Fear of Ukraine Crisis Becomes the Forex Driver
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  432 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
It has been obvious for several weeks that Putin and his unmarked army are going to remain in the Crimea.  The feeble threats from the political class in the West means little to Putin.  It seems he intends, by force, to bring back parts of the empire to Mother Russia.  Does anyone think the Sunday vote in Crimea will oppose the Russian take over?  Markets, as well as politicians, seem prepared to accept the takeover of Crimea as a fait accomplis, but there is another thr...
ForexRazor ComPoundMACD EA ForexRazor ComPoundMACD EA
By Steven Randolf about 1 month(s) ago  •  3 Comments  •  315 Views  •  Article Rating4 Ratings
Before the hand-drawn bow gave way to the compound bow, archers had to use brute strength to pull string to get that 100 pounds of force needed to fly the arrow at 370 feet per second. Now with compound bows using sophisticated levering system of cables and pulleys to draw the string, it doesn’t take as much raw strength to get the same pound-force and speed. The same principle holds true with indicators like MACD.  Before automated trading robots, the manual trader would be forced...
Poor Chinese News Weighs on the Australian Dollar
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  388 Views  •  Article Rating1 Ratings
Recently, the  Chinese economic news has been dismal.  Announced late Friday was the Chinese Trade Balance, and it was a shocker.  Instead of a 14.5 B (¥) surplus, it was announced there was a 22.98B (¥) deficit.  For some reason it was the month the exports stopped, or at least dropped.   This report was preceded with the first Chinese failure of a business to make a loan repayment.  On Friday, Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co. defau...
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