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Central Bankers Chat-Can We Buy the Loonie?
By RalphShell about 4 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  109 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
News in the foreign exchange markets this week was culminated when a global consortium of central bankers descended on beautiful Jackson Hole Wyoming.  Featured speakers, of course, were Janet Yellen the Fed's first chair lady, and the veteran banker from the ECB, Mario Draghi.  They gave contrasting assessments of the status of their economies.  It was acknowledged by Yellen, seemingly a reluctant hawk, that the US economy continues to grow.  The unemployment situation d...
Is This Another False Break Out in the JPYUSD?
By RalphShell about 6 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  140 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
Some of the factors in the global currency markets have aligned to give us a rally in the USD versus the yen.  Geopolitical conflicts remain, but the headlines, warning of imminent disaster which has propelled the haven seekers to acquire the yen have abated.  Instead we have the USD gaining to 103.70, the highest levels seen since early April when the USD traded above 104. The US economic news, though not outstanding, remains positive.  Yesterday the US buildi...
Enthusiasm for Commodity Currencies Waning Enthusiasm for Commodity Currencies Waning
By RalphShell about 9 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  223 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
Currencies specs flipped to the long side of the commodity currencies (the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand Dollars) in the middle of May.  Gradually the long position increased to the top side of 91K contracts at the end of July.  Since there has been a change of heart and small specs have even flipped to the short side in the C$ and A$.  The total long is down to 55.7K.  Earlier this year the short in commodity currencies was as high as 161K so a 55K long show lack of c...
Pound Weakness May be a Setup to Buy Pound Weakness May be a Setup to Buy
By RalphShell about 14 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  105 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
The markets take on the economic news coming from the UK is bearish on the pound.  The unemployment was reduced to 6.4% from 6.5% last month, and the unemployment number was reduced, but not as much as hoped for.  Finally the earning increase fell short of expectations.  The absence of earnings growth is given as a reason to be bearish the pound.  Inflation, the result of higher wages, is not happening, therefore the need to raise interest rates is postponed.  Personally...
USD Long Positions Soar - COT Report USD Long Positions Soar - COT Report
By RalphShell about 16 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  199 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
The total net USD position soared in the August 5, 2014 CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report.  The growth of the net USD long has been dramatic during the last two weeks, from 108.5K in the July 22nd report to 170.5K last week to 287.1K in the current report.  The myriad of geopolitical events which have been emerging have hastened the search for safety, and hence the USD demand.   The biggest position shift has been in the yen, and may have caught the specs on the wrong f...
Canada and Italy - Two Contrasting Economies Canada and Italy - Two Contrasting Economies
By RalphShell about 20 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  110 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
Momentum players make their money buying new highs or selling new lows, hoping the markets are going to extend their recent moves.  For the pure technical analyst the price level is not relevant.  If there are enough players, price does not matter, only the momentum is relevant.  Over time the cure for high prices is high prices, and for lows the opposite works.  High prices kill demand and low prices stimulate demand.  This theory works, the fundamental traders argue, b...
Euro Sales Versus the USD Continue Heavy Euro Sales Versus the USD Continue Heavy
By RalphShell about 21 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  288 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
There was continued heavy selling in the euro, with the total open interest rising to almost 400K and the total spec short position jumping up to a record 132,099 futures and delta adjusted option contracts.  The euro worked lower on the cut-off date for this report, and continued the plunge in the Friday trade.  We have the trade volume reports for Wednesday and Thursday in the new COT reporting report, and the OI continued to climb; this means specs are adding to their bearish euro b...
Will The EURUSD Be Influenced by Last Week's Numbers?  Will The EURUSD Be Influenced by Last Week's Numbers?
By RalphShell about 25 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  330 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
The US labor numbers released Friday showed the US economy is gradually creating more jobs.  The July number - 209K - did fall short of higher expectations from the bulls, but was still a respectable number.  The unemployment rate went up to 6.2%, a mere .01% higher, which reflected a small increase in those seeking a job.  Still, the U-6 number which measures those unemployed, and working part-time because full-time jobs are unavailable, is 12.1%.  This U-6 number equa...
Looking for a Buying Opportunity in the Aussie Looking for a Buying Opportunity in the Aussie
By RalphShell about 28 day(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  453 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
It is a busy week for data releases with the Fed FOMC notes and the NFP the featured attractions.  Additionally in the US, we have the initial Q2 US GDP report, and the weekly unemployment claims report as well as the monthly unemployment report.  From Europe we get more potential market moving reports, the unemployment rate, anticipated CPI's, and some estimates of consumer spending.  Since Forex trading involves pairs of currencies, almost all currencies get caught in the money ...
Heavy Selling Continues in the Euro Heavy Selling Continues in the Euro
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  332 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
There was continued heavy selling in the euro, with the total open interest rising to almost 400K and the total spec short position jumped up to a record 132,099 futures and delta adjusted option contracts.  The euro worked lower on the cut off date for this report, and continued the plunge in the Friday trade.  We have the trade volume reports for Wednesday and Thursday in the new COT reporting report, and the OI continued to climb.  This means specs are adding to their bearish e...
Changes in the Japanese Ministry of Finance to Weaken Yen? Changes in the Japanese Ministry of Finance to Weaken Yen?
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  240 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
The downing of the Malaysian jet over the Ukraine last week influenced safe-haven seekers to push the JPY to 101.14.  After the one-day flurry, the yen then weakened to about 101.90.  Quickly, the conditioned reflex-buying by the mob turned unprofitable. There were some weaker numbers that helped the yen bears.  The Japanese trade balance for the 1H of 2014 was slightly better than the anticipated -1.08T¥, but still bigger than the -0.86T ¥ in the  previous half.&n...
Euro Sinks Under the 1.35 Support - What Next? Euro Sinks Under the 1.35 Support - What Next?
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  319 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
After flirting with the lower side of the 1.35 handle, numerous times, the bears finally emerged victorious.  The timing of this down side break is surprising for several reasons.  First, it is rare to see the majority of the traders prove to be right.  The latest COT futures report showed specs to be short a recent record 106,200 contracts of euro futures and delta related options.  Usually a market this concentrated on one side, gets at least one scare, but so far not this ...
Winners - FxPro Forex Demo Trading Account Contest Winners - FxPro Forex Demo Trading Account Contest
By RazorAdmin about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  226 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
Congratulations! The Winners of the FxPro Demo Trading Contest have been officially declared and you can see the final rankings, including the top 10, on the rankings page. The contest was a great success and attracted 1, 462 participants - thank you for taking part and congratulations to our Winners. Click to Enlarge Winners List Become a trading champion by competing in the Excel Markets-sponsored AUGUST trading contest with $2,500 USD in CASH prizes, 10 winners, and $...
Currency Traders Busy Buying Commodity Currencies Currency Traders Busy Buying Commodity Currencies
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  450 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
Commodity speculators increased their long position in the so called commodity currencies.  Commodity currencies are the Canadian, Australian and the New Zealand Dollar.  Their total net long has grown to 84,185 contracts, the largest combined long position for over a year.  The largest position is in the Australian where specs are now long 42.9K.  The biggest change for the week was in the C$ where specs increased their long from 9.4K to 25.9K.   To date  purc...
When Will Markets Shake the Summer Doldrums? When Will Markets Shake the Summer Doldrums?
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  370 Views  •  Article Rating1 Ratings
U.S. stocks are now about 80% overvalued on certain key long-term measures, according to research by financial consultant Andrew Smithers, the chairman of Smithers & Co. and one of the few to warn about the bubble of the late 1990s at the time. The din from the repetitive Central Banker chatter is annoying.  Their assumption that, should they provide sufficient liquidity, a healthy, vibrant global economy will follow.  Granted, all economies are not equal, and there will be leaders...
Specs Continue to Sell the Euro and the Yen Against the USD Specs Continue to Sell the Euro and the Yen Against the USD
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  317 Views  •  Article Rating1 Ratings
The latest COT Report dated July 8, 2014 reveals specs remain bearish in the euro and the yen.  The net short spec position in the euro is up to 101.5K contracts, the largest short position yet.  In the yen specs had been covering their short but in the past period, they reversed this tactic.  In this period, they added about 12.5K taking their short back up to almost 88K contracts.  The other large spec position is in the pound where they have been long.  Recently specs...
Poor Canadian Employment Numbers Jolt the Loonie Poor Canadian Employment Numbers Jolt the Loonie
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  487 Views  •  Article Rating2 Ratings
Finally, the Canadian Dollar futures specs, after holding short positions in the loonie for over a year, migrated to the long side, only to be betrayed by some poor employment numbers.  The trade was anticipating 20K new hires for the month, but the loss of 9.4K jobs shocked the market.  For the C$, which had recently appreciated from 1.09 versus the USD to 1.0620, the market was unprepared.  Quickly, the USDCAD (FXC, UUP, UDN) raced from 1.0630 past the 1.07 handle.  The...
Changes in Central Bank Reserve Currencies
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  202 Views  •  Article Rating1 Ratings
Every Quarter the IMF issues a report called the Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves, or the COFER Report.  The most recent report was updated  June 30, 2014.  Currently there are 146 reporting entities who report this data on a strictly confidential basis.  A reporting party may be "member countries of the IMF, non-member countries/economies, and other foreign exchanges reserve holding entities." Ownership of these exchange reserves is shown in thre...
Did Last week's Data Give Us Any Clues For the Euro's Direction? Did Last week's Data Give Us Any Clues For the Euro's Direction?
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  609 Views  •  Article Rating1 Ratings
It was a busy week for economic data from both Europe and the US, compressed into a holiday-shortened week.  The initial market judgement is that the constructive US NFP report was a far more decisive input than Draghi's promise to take future measures, should last month's monetary changes fail to ignite an EU recovery. The pundit's average guess was 215K new NFP employees, but the number released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was 288K.  This was a much needed boost for the Wash...
Will the Canadian Dollar Rally Continue? Will the Canadian Dollar Rally Continue?
By RalphShell about 1 month(s) ago  •  0 Comments  •  319 Views  •  Article Rating0 Ratings
During the last six weeks we have seen steady gains in the CAD versus the USD.  When we looked at the C$ on May 20th, the USDCAD was trading around the 1.09 handle, and we felt the CAD would gain.  After churning around the 1.09 level the USD gradually lost ground, making a low of 1.0627, and is now trading at about 1.0670.  Part of the loonie strength can be attributed to USD weakness.  The US recovery is sputtering, and the currency markets fear US interest rates will remai...
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