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Fundamental Outlook: GBP
By huskins on Thursday, August 07, 2008 @ 4:22 AM :: 0 Comments :: Fundamental Analysis, News Trading, Trading Signals

Fundamental Outlook:

Macro level (Manufacturing, Construction Related, Trade Balance)
Prelim GDP: 0.2 vs 0.3 last
CBI Industrial Trends Orders : -8 vs 1 Last
Trade Balance -7.5 Vs -7.5 Last
Mannufacturing Production -0.5% vs 0.0% Last
Industrial Production: -0.8% vs 0.1% Last





Consumer Level: (Job Creation, Retail Sales, Consumer Conf)
Retail Sales: -3.9 vs 3.6 Last
Clamant Count Change: 15.5 Vs 14.3 Last
Avg Earnings Index 3.8 Vs 3.9 Last

Un-employment Rate: 5.2 Vs 5.3 Last
Nationwide Consumer Conf : 63 Vs 69 Last
Services PMI :
Contsrution PMI:



Consumer housing related:
Right move HPI m/m -1.8 vs -1.2% Last
BBA Mortgage Approvals 21.1 K Vs 27.5 K Last
RICS House Price balance -88.0% vs 92.2% Last
Halifax HPI -2% Vs -2.5% Last

DCLG HPI: 3.7% Vs 4.9% Last
Morgage Approvals : 42 K Vs 58 K Last




Interest Rate Influence:
MPC Meeting Minues: 7 hold , 1 Raise , 1 Cut
PPI Input : 2.1 vs 3.9 Last
PPI Output : 0.9 vs 1.9 Last

CPI Y/Y: 3.8 vs 3.3 Last
CPI Core: 1.6 vs 1.5 Last



Commentary:
Look at the Reds above, I guess there is nothing left for me to say, GBP is doing really bad and if the BOE does not lower their rates they will push the ecomomy into a real big recession.

Technical outlook:
How To trade this:

I will Sell Before the news with a 90 Pip Stop on a 1% risk.
If there is a spike up I will sell that rally
I will provide Reverse Spike orders 120 pips away from the Pre-release price @ 7.00 AM, just incase there is any  suprise I will catch slipped market orders.

 


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