Profit Mongers Wednesday Trading Signal 3-10-2010
Hey folks,
The EUR/USD and GBP/USD have managed to dip back into their ranges deeper than I had anticipated, even without a clear top on stocks. For now I'm just going to turn more neutral on them medium term and wait for more clear technical evidence. If anything, I'm looking to go back to playing ranges by buying dips into key support and selling rallies into key resistance.
Stocks continue to play games whiping up and down on light volume and making very little productive movement in either direction. Stocks continue what I believe to be a terminal rally phase before the next concerted selloff, but I have had trouble timing the turnaround on this extended move over the last month, so as I mentioned repeatedly last week, I'm waiting for clear, confirmed signs of reversal lower before I consider any shorter term trades. Long term of course, I believe stocks are poised very well for a short.
There are are a few news items due out Wednesday:
0430 UK Industrial Production m/m (0.3% expected) - The last 3 times we've hit decent triggers, the price action has been really disappointing, so I would probably skip this one unless there's a huge 1.0%+ surprise
1500 NZ Interest Rate Decision (no change at 2.50% unanimously expected) - The RBNZ has repeatedly said they will essentially keep rates unchanged through the first half of 2010, so there is essentially no chance they'll make a rate move, so any price action will be as a result of their text statement/speech.
If they hint at raising rates sooner in the June or early 3rd quarter timeframe, NZD/USD should rally 40 pips.
If they hint at holding rates steady through the 3rd quarter, NZD/USD should sell off 40 pips.
AU Employment Change and Unemployment Rate (15K and 5.3% expected) - Make sure there's agreement between the Unemployment Rate surprise and the Employment figures to ensure a safe trade.
If Employment comes out at 35K or higher and Unemployment Rate comes out at 5.2% or lower, AUD/USD should rally 50 pips.
If Employment comes out at -5K or lower, and Unemployment Rate comes out at 5.4% or higher, AUD/USD should fall 50 pips.
That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. Feel free to email me with any questions at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com
To our success!
Sir Pipsalot
by Profit Mongers @ 3:58 AM, Mar 10
Comments(0) Rate This Post
Profit Mongers Tuesday Trading Signal 3-09-2010
Hey folks,
Both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD have dipped somewhat Monday and seem to be good "buy on the dip" candidates to consider. EUR/GBP is in a strange spot of looking dangerously bullish, but with a major pullback long overdue, so it's hard to read in my opinion to pick whether GU or EU is the better long. A long here on EUR/USD around 1.3630 isn't too horrible, but an entry at a lower price closer to 1.3596-1.3620 would be even better. I still feel that the odds clearly favor exploring higher highs this week, but the longer they take to develop, the lower their odds get. So, essentially, I plan to play the long angle Tuesday and possibly Wednesday as well, but then scrap the idea if it stays rangebound past then.
On a similar note, USD/JPY has dipped enough that because it looks good for a bounce, naturally the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY might be even better plays long than EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The risk here though is the stock market. If and when the stock market tops out and turns lower, yen crosses will likely selloff, while EUR/USD and GBP/USD may still have the ability to rally awhile.
Stocks continue what I believe to be a terminal rally phase before the next concerted selloff, but I have had trouble timing the turnaround on this extended move over the last month, so as I mentioned repeatedly last week, I'm waiting for clear, confirmed signs of reversal lower before I consider any shorter term trades. Long term of course, I believe stocks are poised very well for a short.
There's no economic releases planned for Tuesday this week, so the next news items we'll preview will be for Wednesday.
That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. Feel free to email me with any questions at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com
To our success!
Sir Pipsalot
by Profit Mongers @ 11:00 PM, Mar 08
Comments(0) Rate This Post
Profit Mongers Monday Trading Signal 3-08-2010
Hey folks,
Just a short update today. The EUR/USD did indeed rally off 1.3550 support as I predicted Friday and has worked up near 1.3700. With the waning stages of stock market strength and risk appetite, we'll likely see a break of 1.3700 and levels near 1.3800 early this week.
Also, USD/JPY and pretty much every yen cross has rallied along with my Friday forecasts as well. I'm not sure how much follow-through we'll get this week, but I would definitely look to get long on a decent dip as long as the BOJ doesn't come out in support of a strong JPY or a convincing top has not yet been set on stocks.
Stocks continue what I believe to be a terminal rally phase before the next concerted selloff, but I have had trouble timing the turnaround on this extended move, so as I mentioned repeatedly last week, I'm waiting for clear, confirmed signs of reversal lower before I consider any shorter term trades. Long term of course, I believe stocks are poised very well for a short.
In news Friday, we had employment figures come out slightly better than expected, but not enough to warrant a clear trade. Even with the small surprise, USD/JPY took off for over 100 pips and EUR/USD sold off 40 before whipping back around higher. There's no economic releases planned for Monday or Tuesday this week, so the next news items we'll preview will be fore Wednesday.
That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. Feel free to email me with any questions at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com
To our success!
Sir Pipsalot
by Profit Mongers @ 2:10 AM, Mar 08
Comments(0) Rate This Post