Profit Mongers Friday Trading Signal 09-03-2010
Hey folks,
EUR/USD continues to work out it's potential topping pattern, but a final thrust higher near 1.2900 is likely before a selloff, so I would consider shorting EUR/USD in the 1.2870-1.2910 range if it gets there Friday.
USD/JPY is still a good short around 84.30 or higher as it plays a range and sets up hopefully for a selloff to new lows. See Thursday's signal for more on my USD/JPY trade.
EUR/GBP has entered an area of resistance here above 0.8300 that may top it out for a few days. If you haven't already, I'd consider taking come partial profits. I still plan to hold out with my long through the volatility for a final run towards 0.8600 that should come after the pending retracement.
Stocks managed to push a bit higher today but should be setting up for a multi-day high at the least. I'd look for jobs data to create some stock market volatility today, but ultimately top us out and point us lower into early next week. If you shorted recently in the 1070-80 range as I did, things still look fine at this point, but depending on the nature of price movement over the next 2 days, I may want to close early for a smaller than expected gain to be safe.
In news Thursday, we saw Sweden hike interest rates as somewhat expected, but we still saw the 400 pips or so selloff we were looking for. I decided to hold EUR/SEK short based on some longer term breakout technicals as well and am looking for a selloff to 9.2300 - 9.2400 for now. Hopefully we'll get there by Monday. In news Friday:
0830 US NonFarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate (-105K expected and 9.6%) - EUR/USD is harder to predict on these reports, but USD/JPY seems to work like a champ just about every time. It'll rarely be the biggest mover, but it has the most reliability.
--If NFP comes out at -170K or lower, USD/JPY should sell off about 50 pips in the first minute or two, then consolidate and eventually push further for 70-100 pips depending on the situation.
--If NFP comes out at -40K or higher, USD/JPY should rally about 50 pips in the first minute or two, then consolidate and eventually push higher for 70-100 total pips depending on the situation.
--If Unemployment Rate comes out at 9.8% or higher, this will help push a low NFP number into a bigger, faster drop, while holding back a high NFP number's rally or even reversing it into 2-way action.
--If Unemployment Rate comes out at 9.4% or lower, this will help push a high NFP number into a bigger, faster rally, while holding back a low NFP number's sell off or event reversing it into 2-way rangebound action.
That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. Feel free to email me with any questions at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com
To our success!
Sir Pipsalot
by Profit Mongers @ 11:06 PM, Sep 02
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Profit Mongers Thursday Trading Signal 09-02-2010
Hey folks,
Risk appetite got a nice lift today, and while EUR/USD was able to benefit, USD/JPY remains contained around resistance. While I'll probably be looking to sell EUR/USD sometime soon for a long term trade, I think USD/JPY is the better short here between 84.30 - 84.75 (now 84.36). I would short USD/JPY at market as long as it's somewhere in that sell range, or set up a limit order to short it if it was already below 84.30 at the time. A SL around 85.00 sounds appropriate with an initial TP around 83.65-75, and a final TP near 82.30. As far as EUR/GBP is concerned, I'm sticking with it long to the final TP a bit ahead of 0.8600, but will let you know if I close it earlier or shift my TP down.
Stocks managed quite a sharp rally today right into my 1070-1080 sell range (high was 1082) on the S&P 500 futures fueled by a variety of factors. I still think we'll be topping out near this region, (possibly around 1085 in the next 1-2 days), so for the more recent short from this area, I remain short with about a 30 point SL, with a partial TP around 1040-1045 (already hit once, but back in), and final TP around 1000-1010. I also remain short from 1020-1030 from a few weeks ago. It is possible that the stage could be setting for a new rally phase, but I don't see it as a huge threat just yet, but I'll keep a close eye on things in case sufficient evidence builds to close my shorts and get neutral or flip long.
In news Wednesday, US ADP came out too close to expectations for a trade, but US ISM Manufacturing came out incredibly high and led to a 6 point rally on S&P futures in the first minute, and 10 points within 13 minutes. USD/JPY even got into the action with a 40 pip move which it hasn't done for ISM numbers in quite some time. In news Thursday:
0330 Swedish Interest Rates (3/4 economists expecting 0.25% hike to 0.75%) - If you can trade USD/SEK or EUR/SEK, this could be a good one. In their last Interest Rate Decision (2 months ago), the Swedish Riksbank did their initial rate hike, and now there's a bit of controversy over whether they'll hike again. Keep in mind though that SEK pairs trade with very different spreads and magnitudes than more common pairs, so familiarize yourself with them first.
--If they hike rates by 0.50% or higher, that's clearly not expected and EUR/SEK should sell off by 1000 pips.
--If they hike rates by 0.25%, it's somewhat expected, but EUR/SEK should still sell off by about 300-500 pips.
--If they keep rates unchanged at 0.50%, there should be a strong adjustment pushing EUR/SEK higher by 500-800 pips.
0745 ECB Interest Rate Decision (no change expected) - I don't even plan on watching this as they never release a statement and have almost zero chance of changing rates at this time. Typically they'll telegraph their moves well in advance.
That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. Feel free to email me with any questions at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com
To our success!
Sir Pipsalot
by Profit Mongers @ 8:53 PM, Sep 01
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Profit Mongers Wednesday Trading Signal 09-01-2010
Hey folks,
Just a short update today as I have had a long night and need some rest.
EUR/USD and USD/JPY are somewhat inderminate as 2-way pressures exist at the moment.
EUR/GBP long hit my first target of 0.8280 today and may cool off a bit before a final run to or near my final 0.8600 TP.
In news Tuesday, most news came out expected except AUD GDP which came out higher by 0.3% and led to a rally exactly as I described with 30 pips of upside initially and 54 pips eventually over 90 minutes. Read yesterday's signal for more verification there. In news Wednesday:
0815 US ADP Employment Change (15K expected) - ADP typically responds well to a 50K+ deviation, but poorly to a smaller deviation. Estimates are also tilted towards the downside so I'm widening my downside trigger.
If it comes out at +65K or higher, USD/JPY should rally 40 pips or more.
If it comes out at -50K or lower, USD/JPY should fall 40 pips or more.
1000 US ISM Manufacturing (52.7 expected) - This report has performed poorly on USD/JPY, but with a 2.0+ deviation should perform well on US equities good for a 5-10 point move on the ES contract over 30 minutes.
That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. Feel free to email me with any questions at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com
To our success!
Sir Pipsalot
by Profit Mongers @ 10:33 PM, Aug 31
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