FxInstructor @ 8:12 AM, Friday January 08 2010
EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD still trapped in range area of 1.4450/80 – 1.4250 yesterday.
While my technical strategy remains to short around 1.4450/80 or to buy
around 1.4250 with tight stop loss (which proved to be profitable so
far), we will have US NFP and unemployment rate today which is expected
to bring us out from this choppy market. I prefer a bearish scenario
and a break below 1.4250 support area today, but it will depend on the
US employment data. US NFP is expected around 20.2K while unemployment
rate expected at 10.1%. My opinion is if the actual numbers are at
least the same with forecast, or better, Dollar should strengthen
further. But if the actual numbers are worse than expected, Euro should
get some support. Break below 1.4250 should continue the bearish
scenario towards 1.4127 – 1.4000 area while break above 1.4450/80
should be seen as serious threat to the bearish outlook testing 1.4600
– 1.4800 area.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can
see that the triangle has been violated to the downside indicating
potential further bearish pressure with technical target remains at
1.5832 in nearest term. Key resistance level remains at 1.6040/60 area.
Only consistent move above that area should be seen as a threat to the
bearish outlook.
On fundamental side, We will have US NFP and unemployment rate
today. US NFP is expected around 20.2K while unemployment rate expected
at 10.1%. My opinion is if the actual numbers are at least the same
with forecast, or better, Dollar should strengthen further. But if the
actual numbers are worse than expected, Sterling should get some
support.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY made a significant bullish momentum, by slipped above the
trendline resistance, as you can see in my daily chart below. This fact
should be seen as potential further bullish momentum targeting 94.50 in
nearest term. Immediate support at 93.00. Break below that area should
lead us into no trading zone area and could be seen as a false breakout
which could trigger bearish pressure testing 92.00 area.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday. On h4
chart below, we can see that price failed to stay below 1.0280 area and
now has violated the bearish channel to the upside indicating potential
end to the bearish correction. We will have US NFP and unemployment
rate today which is expected to be catalyst. US NFP is expected around
20.2K while unemployment rate expected at 10.1%. My opinion is if the
actual numbers are at least the same with forecast, or better, Dollar
should strengthen further targeting 1.0500 area. But if the actual
numbers are worse than expected, Swiss Franc should get some support
testing 1.0150 – 1.0000 area.
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 132.38 but
further bearish pressure was rejected as price whipsawed to the upside,
topped at 133.64 and closed at 133.51. On h4 chart below we can see
that price slipped above 133.77 area and now struggling around that
area. I still prefer a bullish scenario but we need consistent move
above 133.77 area to continue the bullish scenario targeting 135.40
area. Immediate support at 133.00. Break below that area should lead us
into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me but I
still prefer a bullish scenario.
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 147.05 but
price whipsawed to the upside, topped at 148.73 and closed at 148.67.
Earlier today in Asian session, price slipped above key resistance
level 148.95 and struggling around that area indicating potential
bullish scenario continuation targeting 150.70 area. However we need a
consistent move above 148.95 area to continue the bullish scenario.
Immediate support at 148.20/00 area. Break below that area should lead
us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me but I
still prefer a bullish scenario.
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday. On daily
chart below we have an important candlestick pattern, a shooting star,
which is a bearish reversal pattern. At the same time, CCI just cross
the 100 line down which is also suggesting potential downside pressure.
The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 0.9091 area but the medium
term bullish scenario should remains intact. Immediate resistance at
0.9220 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish
momentum and cancel the bearish reversal scenario.
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