FxInstructor @ 3:18 AM, Thursday January 07 2010
EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.4283 but
closed higher at 1.4408. The pair still trapped in 1.4250 – 1.4450/80
area. Maybe we need a fundamental catalyst to lead us out from this
choppy market and US NFP tomorrow is expected to do this job. While
aggressive traders can continue to use range trading strategy to short
around 1.4450/80 or to long around 1.4250 with tight stop loss,
conservative traders wait until we have a clear break from the range
area to make decision.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD made indecisive movement yesterday. On h4 chart below we can
see that price is moving in a triangle area indicating consolidation.
The bias is neutral in nearest term but the fact that price so far
still able to move below 1.6040/60 area should keep the bearish
scenario intact with bearish target remains around 1.5832 area. Break
above 1.6060 should be seen as a serious threat to the bearish outlook
testing 1.6150 and 1.6250 area.
On fundamental side, beside interest rate decision (which is likely
to stay at 0.5%), BoE will release its policy on quantitative easing
program which is expected to stay at 200b pounds. While technical view
remains bearish on this pair, Sterling may get some support as long as
BoE keep the QE program as expected.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday after corrected lower on
Monday and Tuesday. On daily chart below we can see that price now back
inside the bullish channel indicating bullish scenario remains intact.
To continue the bullish scenario, price should be able to break above
the major trendline resistance. We are in critical phase now. I am
still in buy mode for this pair and expecting a breakout above the
trendline to continue bullish scenario towards 94.50 even 97.75 area.
Immediate support at 92.00. Break below that area should trigger
further bearish momentum and lead us into no trading zone in nearest
term.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at
1.0248, closed at 1.0275 and traded around 1.0258 at the time I wrote
this comment. This fact should provide more downside pressure for this
pair testing 1.0215 support area. Break below that area should be seen
as bullish scenario failure and change my outlook to a bearish
targeting 1.0000 area. Immediate resistance at 1.0280. Break above that
area should keep the bullish scenario intact.
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, moved back
above the trendline after rejected to move below 38.2 Fibo retracement
support area indicating bullish scenario remains intact. The bias is
bullish targeting 133.77 area. Break above 133.77 should trigger
further bullish momentum towards 135.40 area. Immediate support at
132.60 area. Break below that area should lead us back into no trading
zone as direction would become unclear for me.
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 148.44 and
closed at 147.85. On daily chart below we can see that the trendline
support did good job preventing further bearish momentum, keep the
bullish scenario intact. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting
148.95 area. Immediate support at 147.30/50 area. Break below that area
should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear
for me.
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at
0.9216, closed at 0.9196 and traded higher around 0.9250 at the time I
wrote this comment. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting
0.9292 area. Break above that area should lead us to a new bullish
phase targeting 0.9404 area. Immediate support at 0.9190. Break below
that area should lead us into no trading zone but I still prefer a
bullish scenario at this phase.
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