Anna Coulling @ 10:20 AM, Friday July 03 2009
Euro vs Dollar - Daily Candle Chart 3rd July 2009
Euro vs Dollar - EUR vs USD Daily Chart 3rd July 2009
Yesterday’s candle on the euro vs dollar daily chart ended the
session as a wide spread down bar largely as a result of the worse than
expected unemployment figures released in the US which subsequently led
to a sell off in equities and a consequent strengthening of the US
Dollar. The candle closed the session below both the 9 and 14 day
moving averages but interestingly found some support from the 40 day
moving average which held the low of the day from a further fall. The
signal thus created was one of a bearish engulfing pattern which would
suggest that we may see a further fall in the Eurodollar in due course,
but this may not be validated today owing to thin market volumes as a
consequence of the national holiday
in the US for Independence Day. Therefore, we will have to wait until
early next week for any confirming price action, and for this to be
considered seriously we will need to see a break and below the 1.38
region for any move lower coupled with a reversal of the 9 and 14 day
moving averages. For Euro bulls only a firm weekly close above 1.43
will signal any Euro strength.
Dollars To Pounds - Daily Candle Chart 3rd July 2009
Pound vs Dollar - Daily Chart For GBP/USD 3rd July 2009
The pounds to dollars pair was another beneficiary
of the currency majors for the Dollar strength which came on the back
of a sell off in the equity markets following the worse than expected
NFP data in the US. Yesterday’s candle ended the trading session as a
wide spread down bar closing below both the 9 and 14 day moving
averages but still retaining a degree of clear water above the 40 day.
In many ways yesterday’s candle has validated the extremely bearish
“shooting star” seen on Tuesday which introduced a classic bearish
indicator to the otherwise sideways consolidation. For this pattern to
be fully confirmed we now need to see a break and hold below the strong
support now in place in the 1.59 price region, but given the thin
trading volumes it seems unlikely that anything much will happen before
next week. It is interesting to note in trading today that the high of
session so far has found the 9 and 14 day bunched moving averages a
barrier to any reversal higher with the current rate trading at
USD1.6310.
USD vs CAD - US Dollar/Canadian Dollar Daily Chart 3rd July 2009
USD vs CAD - Daily Chart For The USD to CAD Currency Pair 3rd July 2009
As with several of the other major pairs the dollar to cad was a
beneficiary of the market’s return to the US Dollar as equity markets
suffered as a result of the dreadful NFP data in the US which fell
below market expectations, taking the US unemployment rate to almost
10%. The daily candle closed as a wide spread up bar finishing the
session above all three moving averages and finding good support from
the 14 day. However, the high of the day failed once again to hold
above the 1.165 region which is the fourth time in the last 2 weeks
that this has occurred suggesting once again that this price point is
proving a solid obstacle to any sustained rally higher. Only a break
and hold above the 1.18 region will now validate the rally further and
it would seem unlikely that we will have any confirmation today owing
to the national holiday
in the US for Independence Day, and we therefore need to wait until
early next week for any further signals as to whether this trend is
likely to stall or will find some fresh legs from renewed Dollar
strength.
Daily Oil Prices - Oil Price Chart WTI Crude Prices 3rd July 2009
This week’s price action in daily oil prices has been distorted by “rogue trading”
from one of the world’s biggest oil brokers PVM here in London and goes
some way to explain Tuesday’s candle on the oil chart. Briefly, during
early trading in Asia at approximately 02.00 GMT an extremely and
unusual trade was placed for 9000 lots (or even more) of Brent Crude
which is equivalent to around 9m barrels of oil. To put this into
context the output of Saudi Arabia on a daily basis is around 11m to
12m barrels. On the day this trade spooked the oil market for two
reasons: firstly, the sheer volume at this time of night would normally
suggest a geo political event of major importance triggering buying on
this scale and once again to put this into context normal trading
volumes would be around 500k barrels. Secondly, the timing of this
trade which again was unusual as trades of this size would normally not
happen during this session. As a result oil prices
shot to $73 per barrel with the Brent Crude Prices pushing the WTI
higher with many traders deeply puzzled and alarmed. The “error” has
been put down to a possible “fat finger trade” and the company has been
unwinding its positions as a result with a potential loss of around
$10m. My own personal view is that at this time of night it could have
been one of the office cleaners merely doing some light dusting to the
keyboards (I joke - but you never know). As I use volume in my own
trading I was certainly confused myself as the volume spike on the day
was enormous and at the time I wasn’t sure whether it was a technical
glitch or a true reflection of the trading volumes - now we know. In
the meantime yesterday’s wide spread down bar reflected both the fall
in equity markets following the worse than expected NFP data and
probably not helped by the above unwinding of positions by PVM, closing
$3.18 down on the day and touching an intra day low of $66.27 last seen
on June 23rd. From a technical perspective the wide spread down bar of
yesterday found some support at the 40 day moving average which will
now prove critical to prevent a deeper move in crude oil prices.
Today’s price action is likely to be both muted and random given the
thin volumes (unless PVM decide to sell a few more million barrels!!)
owing to the 4th of July celebrations in the US. Have a great weekend
and a Happy 4th of July.
The short term trend is sideways the medium term trend is bullish while the long term trend is bullish.
WTI:
Support: $66.27 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $70.92 (high of 25/06/09)
Support: $65.98 (40 day moving average) Resistance: $70.21 (high of 22/06/09)
Support: $64.96 (low of 03/06/09) Resistance: $69.70 (yesterday’s high)
OIL (BRENT):
Support: $66.21 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $70.51 (high of 25/06/09)
Support: $65.90 (low of 23/06/09) Resistance: $69.62 (high of 22/06/09)
Support: $65.41 (40 day moving average) Resistance: $69.19 (yesterday’s high)
Silver Spot Prices - Daily Silver Chart 3rd July 2009
Silver’s reaction to the Non Farm Payroll data was somewhat more
dramatic than that of spot gold and certainly paints a more bearish
picture from a technical perspective, which is interesting, as there
seems to be some divergence between the two metals which has been
revealed in the last couple of weeks. If we consider the silver chart
first; yesterday’s wide spread down bar added to the bearish sentiment
following Monday’s “shooting star” doji candle which signalled the
start of this week’s fall in spot silver
prices. With both the 9 and 14 day moving averages now weighing
heavily above and with the 40 day having crossed and started to turn,
this is most definitely a bearish picture and somewhat at odds with
that of gold. Of particular significance is the 9 day moving average
which now seems to be providing a serious barrier to any attempt to
rise, and indeed we saw this again in yesterday’s candle. The gold
chart, on the other hand, whilst bearish in flavour, certainly differs
in that the general price move is one of sideways direction but
certainly not indicative of a likely reversal lower. A reason for the
apparent breakdown in the traditional, positive correlation between
gold and silver is most likely due to the fall in equity markets
combined with silver’s dual role as both an industrial and precious
metal, of which the former seems to be weighing more heavily at
present. As a consequence spot silver
touched the 6th May low of $13.280 per ounce and eventually closed at
$13.40 per ounce. With the US market closed for the 4th of July
celebrations leading to very thin volumes we may see some random
sideways price action on the silver chart today.
The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.
Support: $13.280 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $14.380 (high of 19/06/09)
Support: $13.250 (low of 06/05/09) Resistance: $14.140 (high of 30/06/09)
Support: $12.980 (low of 05/05/09) Resistance: $13.800 (yesterday’s high)
Anna's Websites Below:
http://www.euro-vs-dollar.com
http://www.euro-to-dollar.com
http://www.usd-to-cad.com
http://www.yen-to-dollar.com
http://www.prices-oil.org
http://www.spot-gold-price.org
http://www.pounds-to-dollars.com
http://www.spot-silver.com
http://www.cot-report.com
http://www.currency-trading-forex.com
http://euros-to-pounds.com