Profit Mongers @ 8:36 AM, Friday January 13 2012
9:55 USD UoM Consumer Sentiment (71.5 expected, 69.9 prior, 68.5 to 77.0 range)
This one has very high expectations, it is back near the highs seen in Feb and late Spring 2011.
This is not one to spike trade, but rather better to watch and wait and look to get into a trend
that forms, at the same time the reaction could be short lived. The +2.9 deviation on Nov 11th
did lead to a nice trend on the CADJPy, up 50 pips over the next 2-3 hours, however a similar
deviation on OCt 28 did sell off for 10 minutes until finding its feet and rallying as well. The
top end expectation at 77 is quite high and this would be the highest figure for sometime, as would
anything over 75.5 be the highest since Nov 21st 2008 when it printed 76.1. So a deviation of about
5.0 either way can be good, as mentioned a +/-3.0 can work but there might it might not work right
away, there could be some initial whipsaw before it begins to trend. A +/-5.0 should work better,
of course if a +5.5 is hit then it would be pretty risk on. However so far today the market has
been risk off after a lackluster Italian Bond Auction but the further losses since the US open has
been due to threats from the rating agency S&P about more ratings downgrades for other european
nations other than Germany. So there is alot pressing against this if there is a positive release.
If it comes out at 77.0 or higher, buy USDJPY for 20-30 pips or buy CADJPY/GBPJPJY/EMiniS&P500
if it comes out at 56.0 lower, sell USDJPY for 20-30 pips or sell CADJPY/GBPJPJY/EMiniS&P500
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