0830 US Retail Sales Less Autos m/m (+0.3% expected, +0.2% previous, -0.2% to +0.8% range)
Affliated Reports:
US Advance Retail Sales m/m (+0.3% expected, +0.2% previous, -0.2% to +0.9% range)
US Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (+0.4% expected, +0.2% previous, 0.0% to +0.5% range)
US Initial Jobless Claims w/w (375k expected, 372k previous, 352k to 405k range)
US Continuing Claims w/w (3595k expected, 3595k previous, 3545k to 3630k range)
Last months -0.2 on Core and -0.3 on Advance lead to whippy/choppy price action on the USDJPy, but
it did sell off about 20 pips about 45 minutes after the release heading into the New York Open.
CADJPY got about a 15 pip spike but then also went choppy and sidewise until after the US open when
it sold off more. Still it is not a deviation we would be interested in, this one tends to need a
wider deviation to give a good move. The best thing to do is widen triggers out to +/-0.7, whereas
we used +/-0.5 on thisone last month. A deviation of 0.6 should move the main yen pairs and the
Equity indices, although the USDJPY doesn't really make so many pips so trading CADJPY would be the
best option to trade this if you are stuck to using forex, if not the Equity Indices like the EMini
S&P would be best. Of course after getting in on the main ex-Autos number check the Advance or
Headline figure to make sure it agrees, there could also be revisions to the previous months release,
so if any of these conflict with ex-Autos and the deviation is large enough, probably safest to close
the position out. Also the Weekly Initial Jobless number is out at the same time. This one has been
back in focus as it finally managed to retest the Feb 2011 lows again in mid-December. 364k is the
low for 2011, so if this can be broken it will make some headlines "lowest jobless in xx months!!!"
so this is significant but if it can bust 350k that would really get things going. A lower figure is
good and the EMini and risky assets will rally. So you want to have this also set on your weapon.
A print back above 400k would be bad. So check the Retail Sales is in agreement with the IJC number
or at least if one deviates alot the other is flat. Careful because the ECB press conference will
also start around this time.
If RS-ExAutos comes out at +1.0% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 30-50 pips.
If RS-ExAutos comes out at -0.4% or lower, USD/JPY should drop 30-50 pips.
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