Profit Mongers @ 6:36 AM, Thursday January 12 2012
0745 ECB Interest Rate Decision - (1.0% expected, 1.00% prior, 0.75% to 1.00% range)
Out of the 53 analyst's polled by Bloomberg, 6 expect a 25 basis point cut by the ECB today, the
remain 47 all expect the ECB to hold steady at 1.00% today. Last month the ECB was widely expected
to cut 0.25% and they did, there were a few who expected a larger cut of 0.5% and just 2 who expected
them to hold. The ECB is generally quite forward about signaling their intentions for the next month
to the market and they generall do not make big bold moves. The cut was therefore expected and the
EURUSD did sell-off into the announcement, however the pair did actually rally on the announcement.
Perhaps it is good news to have lower rates for the Euro because this does help the members on the
periphery who are facing very high interest rates at the moment. Therefore must be very careful on
this one. As the move was expected last month it cannot be said it was a usual reaction, which is
that a currency will weaken on lower rates and strengthen on higher rates, due to the current situation
with alot of focus on the Soverign RAtings and problems with many countries using 1 currency. Last
month 45 minutes after the interest rate figure in the press conference the ECB's Mario Draghi first
announce more Bonds which cause EURUSD to rally more, then he downgraded GDP forecasts and the EURUSD
sold off.
If they hold rates steady at 1.00%, EURUSD could rally a bit, but if the pair is still at its highs for
the day it is risky.
If they cut 25 basis points to 0.75%, EURUSD should sell off 30-50 pips, but if you do not see an
immediate reaction down, it is safer to cover fast.
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