0830 US NonFarm Payrolls (+155K expected, 120k prior, +80k to +220k range)
Affliated Late
US Unemployment Rate (8.7% expected, 8.6% prior, 8.5% to 8.8% range)
US NonFarm Payrolls Revision (+120k last month)
US Private Payrolls (+178k expected, +140k prior, +130k to +230k range)
US Manufacturing Payrolls (+6k expected, +2k prior, +5k to +20k range)
Last month just a small deviation on the main NFP Change figure at +120k versus the +125k
expected came along with a +20k revision to the previous month and a very good -0.4% deviation
on the Unemployment Rate taking it to 8.6% from the 9.0% median estimate. It was about a year
ago that fears of 10% unemployment were worrying market watchers. This lead to a quick pop
higher on USDJPY 10-15 pipsand CADJPy of +40 pips. Also the EURUSD popped 25 pips higher, but
none of these moves persisted and things came back down to pre-release and drifted sidewise.
Actually it is quite rare for this news to have such a muted price reaction. Usually this one
deviates and if not substanstially then even a more modest deviation can cause the market to
move quite a bit. It continues to be the major economic news event of the month. We will
continue to watch the main Change in NonFarm Payrolls figure watching for a deviation of +/-50.
A few times a deviation just short of this has still moved the markets quite well, so trimming
it slightly to +/-49 or 48 is possible. Then watch for the Unemployment Rate to confirm,
remember that a higher number here is bad, and also watch the Revision to the previous month.
The EMini S&P 500 will move nicely on this number as indeed any major stock indice such as the
Dow, Russell, DAX or even FTSE. Yen crosses such as the CADJPY should follow the moves of the
stock indices as will the USDJPY but the move on this pair will be less pips than other pairs.
The USD crosses such as the EURUSD, AUDUSD and GBPUSD could be a bit whippy initially but then
should follow thru based on the risk on/off theme produced from the deviation. So although for
example good news for the USA should create a positive effect for the US currency, usually it
creates risk appetite which can do the opposite and weaken the US Dollar.The ADP earlier this
week was much stronger, as have weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Employment components of ISM,
only Challenger Jobcuts has been weaker so a strong print is expected.
If Employment comes out at +205k or higher, and unemployment Rate is flat or lower,
USDJPY should rally 40+ pips also CADJPY should rally 60+ pips & EMini as well
If Employment comes out at +105K or lower, and unemployment Rate is flat or higher,
USDJPY should sell off 40+ pips also CADJPY should drop 60+ pips & EMini as well
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