0830 US GDP QoQ Annualized - Final (+2.0% exp, +2.0% prior,+1.5% to +2.8% range) majority 1.8% to 2.2%
Affliated Reports:
US Personal Consumption (+2.3% expected, +2.3% prior, +1.5% to +2.4% range) majority 2.2% to 2.4%
US GDP Price Index (+2.5% exp, +2.5% prior, +2.0% to +2.5% range)
US Core PCE q/q (+2.0% expected, +2.0% prior, +2.0% to +2.0% range)
US Initial Jobless Claims w/w (380k expected, 366k prior, 355k to 400k range)
US Continuing Claims w/w (3600k expected, 3603k prior, 3560k to 3650k range)
Last month this one came out with Canadian Retail Sales at the same time, it also came out with a -0.5% deviation
lower, despite this the USDJPY actually rallied about 20 pips. The CADJPy did rally a bit as the Canadian Retail
sales was higher on the headline but just a tad on the Core. GBPJPY and EURJPY did see some downside eventually
but fairly muted. October was as expected and price action was flat. Back in September was the last time we had
a final reading for GDP, this time for Q2 2011. There was a +0.1 deviation and the USDJPY rallied 15 pips and
CADJPY rallied 40 pips, the GPBJPY also rallied well, EURJPY was a bit more muted as can be expected since everyone
is really negative about the euro. The -0.3 deviation lower in July lead to a really nice move down of 40 pips
in USDJPY and 100 pips in CADJPY, EURJPY & GBPJPY did spike lower but did not continue to run down. This shows
us what is possible with this data release, but why did the -0.5 in november fail to do anything. Well it was a
risk on morning, and things were leading towards a european summit where they would sort everything out with a
few quick meetings...the S&P500 futures did sell off 2 points initially on the news and then continue for about
5 points total, the Cad numbers help risk sentiment a bit. The EURUSD and GBPUSD sold off the gains from the
European session about 40-50 pips each, so the USD gained from the risk off, perhaps the Yen pairs are not the
best Forex pairs to be trading on this. AUDUSD sold off about 30 pips, USDCHF gained about +35. This risk off
faded after an hour, many had expected perhaps some rumors and the market is more focused on Q4. Because of last
month's deviation the range of estimates on this is quite wide. Also last week the Initial Jobless Claims came
in at 366k and this significantly breaks the 400k bull/bear line that this weekly figure has been hovering near
for some time. We are now approaching the lows seen in April before fears of a double dip recession crept up
during the summer. The US is in the clear so it seems, if europe doesn't pull the whole world down the hole.
Its rare for the Range of estimate to be wider for the Final release than the Advanced release, we went for a
0.9 spread last time to a 1.3 this time...also with thin volume christmas market, it is hard to say, but trading
S&P should be fine, today CADJPY should be good too since there is no CAD news. Watch out for the IJC number
agreeing or disagreeing - this is important
If it comes out at +2.6% or higher, and IJC is below 380k, CAD/JPY should rally 25-45 pips.
you could buy AUDUSD or EMini S&P or DAX
If it comes out at +1.5% or lower, and IJC is above 400k, CAD/JPY should fall 25-45 pips.
you could sell EURUSD or EMini S&P or DAX
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