Profit Mongers @ 2:49 AM, Tuesday December 20 2011
0400 German IFO Business Climate (106.0 expected, 106.6 prior, 105.0 to 107.3 range)
Affliated Reports at 4:00 -
GER IFO Business Expectations (97.0 expected, 97.3 prior, 94.6 to 97.5 range)
GER IFO Current Assessment m/m (116.0 expected, 116.7 prior, 115.2 to 117.0 range)
Last months a +1.4 deviation lead to an initial +20 pip pop higher in the 1st minute after
the release and after 8 minutes of consolidation a futher 15-20 pips push higher then occurred.
A good response! This one can just blip in the direction of the deviation and then reverse.
Last month it continued, but cannot say this is so reliable yet. If you have good slippage
control and fast execution you can take advantage of this. In October only +0.2 and a small
10-15 pip move higher quickly reversed 40 pips lower. September had a good +1.0 dev, this is
the minimum needed and price popped +25 but came back to prerelease after 5 minutes but then
did start again to move higher and this continued thru the rest of the european session did
gain over 100 pips by the time that the sunrise hit new york city. A much bigger deviation
in August however did not continue the move, with a -2.6 deviation there was only a brief 15
pips spike lower which quickly whipped back to prerelease and was soon then 50 pips higher.
If it comes out at 107.3 or higher, EUR/USD should rally 30-40 pips.
If it comes out at 104.7 or lower, EUR/USD should drop 30-40 pips.
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