Profit Mongers @ 8:05 AM, Thursday December 15 2011
1000 US Philly Fed (+5.0 expected, +3.6 prior, -0.0 TO +12.0 range)
Last months -5.4 did not cause much reaction, a small brief dip, nothing more, things later
went on to rally later in the session. This figure did have some big drops a few months ago
and that really made the market worry that a double dip recession was more likely. Although
the USDJPY only dropped 15 pips on the big -35 deviation, there were better moves in the EMini
S&P and the other yen crosses had much better moves of 60-70 pips. In October this one came
out close to expectations but had recovered a bit from the horrid -30 number seen in August.
This time the figure is expected to come out back above the bull/bear line of Zero. If it can
do this it should restore some confidence to the markets at least in the USA....still markets
are very focused on the bad situation in the Eurozone. So far this morning at 8:30am some good
data from the USA on the weekly jobs data has given the market a boost after 3 days of selling
off. About a +/-15 on this one can be worth while to trade but the USDJPY usually doesn't move
that many pips unless you stay on it a longer time. Other YEn crosses like CADJPY are better
options for gaining pippage from a good deviation or using the EMini S&P500.
--If it Philly comes out at +20.0 or higher USD/JPY should rally about 15-30 pips,
CADJPY or EMini should also move up.
--If it Philly comes out at -10.0 or lower USD/JPY should fall about 15-30 pips,
CADJPY or EMini should also move down.
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