Profit Mongers @ 3:17 AM, Wednesday December 14 2011
0430 UK Jobless Claims Change (+13.7K expected, +5.3k previous, +3k to +20k)
Affiliated Releases:
Claimant Count Rate (+5.1% expected, +5.0% previous, 5.0% to 5.2% range)
ILO Unemployment Rate 3mnts (+8.3% expected, +8.3% previous, +8.2% to +8.4% range)
Avg Weekly Earnings 3mnths (+1.7% expected, +1.7% prior, +1.4% to +1.8% range)
Weekly Earnings exBonus 3mths (+1.6% expected, +1.8% prior, +1.6% to +2.3% range)
Last month a -15.7k deviation lower, which is good, lead to only a brief 15 pip pop which
quickly turned around and sold off below pre-release. Not a good response and the +/-15k
deviation we have used in the past is now obviously not enough. Now in September, it came
out at +20.3k below the +35.0k expected, so a -14.7k deviation lower which is good, and
it moved up 35-40 pips, and continued to rally over the next few hours. This was good
evidence to use this deviation but now we see that this is less reliable, so we can try
something wider. Of course it still might work, in which case for more modest deviations
it is best to wait and let the figure print on the wire, the monitor price action to
confirm it is moving as expected in the direction of the deviation, and try and get in on
a pullback if indeed a short-term momentum trend can develop and extend thru the rest of
the EUropean session. Last month the Headline Unemployment Rate was also lower at 5.0%
below the 5.1% expected but the ILO Rate was higher at 8.3% above the 8.2% expected. Back
in September ILO was flat but the Headline Rates was 4.9% below the 5.0% expected, could
this have been the reason why September got a better spike and continuation, whereas last
month had a quick pop and duck?
If it CCC out at +33.0K or higher, & Rate is higher, GBP/USD should sell off about 30-50 pips.
If it comes out at -7.0K or lower, & Rate is lower, GBP/USD should rally about 30-50 pips.
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