Profit Mongers @ 7:10 AM, Tuesday December 13 2011
0830 US Retail Sales Ex-Autos m/m (+0.4% expected, +0.6% previous, 0.1% to +0.8% range)
Affliated Reports:
US Advance Retail Sales m/m (+0.6% expected, +0.5% previous, +0.2% to +1.1% range)
US Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (+0.4 expected, +0.7 previous, +0.2 to +0.6 range)
Last month Retail Sales got released with PPI and Empire Manufacturing all at the same time.
There were modestly higher deviations on Core (ex-Autos or 'Less Autos' - depending on your
source) and on Headline or 'Advance', there was a small brief pop higher on Yen Crosses and
the EMini. It was short-lived however. In October a +0.4 deviation on the ex-Autos and +0.6
on headline. The USDJPY popped about 10 pips higher only and then dropped 25 pips below pre-
release, just to rally about a hour and a half later. CADJPY had a better move of about 25
pips, but it too then sold off slowly until 10am. Same with other Yen Crosses and the EMini
S&P500. The best thing to do is widen triggers out to +/-0.7, whereas we used +/-0.5 on this
one last month. A deviation of 0.6 should move the main yen pairs and the Equity indices,
although the USDJPY doesn't really make so many pips so trading CADJPY would be the best option
to trade this if you are stuck to using forex, if not the Equity Indices like the EMini S&P would
be best. Of course after getting in on the main ex-Autos number check the Advance or Headline
figure to make sure it agrees, there could also be revisions to the previous months release, so
if any of these conflict with ex-Autos and the deviation is large enough, probably safest to close
the position out. If you are using the Elite weapon you could make sure only to get if all the
numbers deviated the same way but you may sacrifice an earlier entry time to do this.
If RS-ExAutos comes out at +1.1% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 30-50 pips.
If RS-ExAutos comes out at -0.3% or lower, USD/JPY should drop 30-50 pips.
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