1930 AU Employment Change (+10.0K exp, +10.1k prior, -10.0k to +17.0k range)
Affliated Reports:
AU Unemployment Rate (+5.2% expected, +5.2% prior, +5.1% to +5.3% range)
AU Fulltime Employment Change (+20.0k prior)
AU Parttime Employment Change (-9.9k prior)
Last month just +0.1 on the Net Change figure, and -0.1 on the Unemployment Rate. The FullTime
Employment Change figure was up from +10.8k in October to +20k for that November release, while
PartTime jobs dropped from 9.6k in October to -9.9k in November. So there was a shift from Part-
time to Fulltime jobs and a drop in the rate, which is good. There was a move up of about 25 pips,
just a quick blip and price came right back down below pre-release, just noise. In October, a +10.4
deviation higher on the Net Change came along with a better -0.1 deviation on Rate. F/T Employment
Change was +23.4 dev above expected and +6.7 dev above expected on P/T so most of the positive deviation
in the Net Change figure came from the Fulltime sector, which is best. Price made about a 80-90 pip move,
however the move did start early, so either there was a leak or a delay in transmitting the number over
the wires. Still the move did continue at the main release, for more like 50 pips. A high was made in the
1st minute after the release but then pulled back, not dropping back to pre-release but not making new highs,
so profit needed to be taken quickly. If there was any slippage, with the pre-news move it could have been dangerous. In September a -19.7 deviation dropped the aussie 55 pips, it then just chopped sidewise in a
20 pip range before recovering as the EUropean session stated. Price did not continue past the initial
reaction spike, so there was danger if any slippage occurred at the entry. This came with an in increase
in Full time jobs to -12.6kfrom -22.2k, while Parttime jobs dropped from 22.1k to 2.9k. So the Fulltime jobs
did not agree, but it was still under 0. This move could have gone further and actually continued if the
Fulltime number had agreed. The Rate was higher as well, which is negative and this did agree with the
deviation in the Change figure. Safest to stick with a 20k deviation on Net and then make sure that the
deviation in Full-time and Rate agree to decide whether to hang on. However there have been some pretty
decent moves on devs less than 20k, aggressive traders could go down to +/-15k, in July there was a 55 pip
move on a +8.1 dev, but trading such small devs increase possibility of conflict and if there is a pre-news
move then not a big deviation there could be a reversal. This one does have a tendancy to move before the
number, and can have a quick move in the 1st minute with little follow thru.
If Net Change is 30K or higher & Rate is flat or lower & F/T Emp Change did not decrease from prior month,
AUD/USD should rally 50-80 pips.
If Employment comes out at -10K or lower & UR is flat or higher & F/T Emp. Change has decreased from prior mth,
AUD/USD should drop 50-80 pips.
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