Profit Mongers @ 3:20 AM, Wednesday December 07 2011
0430 UK Industrial Production m/m (-0.3% expected, 0.0% prior, -0.8% to -0.1% range)
Affliated Reports:
UK Industrial Production y/y (-0.7% expected, -0.7% prior, -1.2% to -0.5% range)
UK Manufacturing Production m/m (-0.3% expected, +0.2% prior, -0.6% to 0.0%)
UK Manufacturing Production y/y (+1.4% expected, +2.0% prior, +1.2% to +1.8%)
Just a very devviation on this last month +0.1 with a +0.1 revision to previous month on the
m/m figure. y/y was -0.1 with +0.1 revision, manufacting +0.1 on both. Just sidewise choppy
price action. In october a +0.4 deviation on this one brought about a small 10 pip pop higher
before a total reversal lower some 40-50 pips below pre-release. Although this deviation was not
enough to trigger a trade, it is not very reassuring to see this response to a higher figure than
expected. There was however a revision to the previous month of -0.4 from -0.2, and a +0.1 deviation
on the y/y figure but also the previous month was revisied down. In September this one also deviated
downward from +0.2 to -0.2, and there was only a very quick 15 blip down and price chopped around
for 15 minutes before heading higher. In August there was a similar -0.4 deviation but this time
the there was a better move down of about 50 pips although it appears the move started a minute
or 2 before the actual release. The y/y figure also had a -0.5 deviation lower and revisions to
the previous month were both -0.1. Although in the past we have watched triggers as low a +/-0.5
for aggressive spike trading. It is necessary to widen these out to at least +/-0.8 and more
conservative spike traders could use triggers of around +/-1.2. Somewhere in between could be a
good option for those somewhere between aggressive and conservative such as +/-1.0. Spike trade
the main Industrial Production number and then quickly chek that the Manufacturing Production
figure aggrees.
If it comes out at +0.9% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 45-80 pips
If it comes out at -1.5% or lower, GBP/USD should drop 45-80 pips
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