Profit Mongers @ 6:10 PM, Tuesday December 06 2011
2130 AU GDP q/q (+0.8% expected, +1.2% prior, +0.4% to +1.4% range)
Affliated Report
AU GDP y/y (+1.9% expected, +1.4% prior, +1.6% to +2.6% range)
Another quarterly news release from down-under, since this is only released quarterly
it usually has a good effect on price. Last time in September a +0.2% on q/q came out
along with a +0.7% y/y and lead to straight upward move of 40 pips during the 1st
minute after the release. It then just went sidewise, chopping about in a 10-20 pip
range for nearly 80 minutes until further upward gains resumed adding another 60 pips
up until half past the london open where some profit taking capped gains. The release
before was on June 1st and was -0.1% on the q/q and flat on y/y. Unfortunately the
Forex Peace Army website is showing price action for 24 hours before as they have the
incorrect date for the data on their site. Unfortunately FPA is riddled with errors,
one even has to wonder if some news brokers have paid FPA to provide inaccurate data
to screw up news traders...lol just kidding. If you scroll back on your chart you
will see that although AUDUSD did drop during the day ahead of the news it did also
head down from about 1.0630 to 1.0580 on this news. Anyhow it is safer to trade the
+/-0.2 deviation on this one at least, if not +/-0.3 for more conservative, but as we
saw last month a 0.2 worked by the action was immediate up in the 1st minute, so if you
can get filled on a 40 pip direct up spike fine, otherwise there was quite awhile of
sidewise price action to go thru before it eventually resolved up. This is fine for
real traders trading normal sizes, but anyone bunging huge amounts of lots on trying
to make a quick buck will actually be sweating more buckets than they imagined an easy
buck might take to get.
--If it comes out at +1.0% or higher, AUD/USD should rally 40-60 pips
--If it comes out at -0.6% or lower, AUD/USD should fall 40-60 pips
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