0830 US NonFarm Payrolls (+125K expected, +80k prior, +75k to +175k range)
Affliated Late
US Unemployment Rate (9.0% expected, 9.0% prior, 8.9% to 9.1% range)
US NonFarm Payrolls Revision (+80k last month)
US Private Payrolls (+150k expected, +104k prior, +110k to +190k range)
US Manufacturing Payrolls (+9k expected, +5k prior, 0k to +15k range)
US Avg Hourly Earnings m/m (+0.2% expected, +0.2% prior, 0.0% to +0.3% range)
US Avg Hourly Earnings y/y (+2.0% expected, +1.8% prior, +1.7% to +2.1% range)
Last month just a small -15k deviation and well below our usual triggers, the USDJPY actually
moved up a bit but only about 10 pips and well within the bounds of the usual noise that can
occur in markets. The revision to the previous month was a bigger story with a +55k being added
to the previous month. This took about 15 minutes to work into the USDJPY but a 30 pips rally
did progress over the next 90 minutes or so. This was initially much more pronounced on CADJPY
which spiked 35 pips on the revision, but then fizzled out, +40 on EURJPY and GBPJPy but again
these did not hold, only the USDJPY trended up into the NY cash equity open. US ADP on Wednesday
did come out with a quite big positive deviation of +75 despite being overshadowed by the news
of the coordinated central bank liquidity operation. The Challenger Job Reports showed a 12.8%
drop in layoffs. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims have trended below 400k, getting back to the
lows seen in April, before fears of a double dip recession enveloped the market during the middle
of the year. All seem to indicate a higher NFP release today, except the employment sub-component
of the ISM Manufacturing number that came out the yesterday, which fell from 53.5 to 51.8. Also
the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Consumer Confidence report have also
shown gains and former of which is at a 5-month high. These reports poll ordinary people who
would not feel more confident if they were finding difficult to get employment. In October a
+43k deviation did provide a nice move, we used +/-50k deviation so just missed it. While we could
use Octobers good response to tighten our triggers down from +/-50 to +/-45 or even +/-40, we should
remember that using wider triggers is a safety for a conflict on the Unemployment Rate. If it
conflicts with the deviation in change and is +/-0.2 or more then get out. Remember lower Rate is
good and higher Change is good. If you use nominal and conservative triggers you could use a smaller
lot size with 40k, or with the elite weapon you can make sure that the Rate is flat or agrees with
the deviation in Change. Also watch the revision to last month's figure. It appears the range of
analysts estimates is right on our +/-50k deviation so it would seem good to stick to that.
If Employment comes out at +175k or higher, and unemployment Rate is flat or lower,
USDJPY should rally 40+ pips also CADJPY should rally 60+ pips & EMini as well
If Employment comes out at +75K or lower, and unemployment Rate is flat or higher,
USDJPY should sell off 40+ pips also CADJPY should drop 60+ pips & EMini as well
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