0815 US ADP Employment (130k expected, 110k prior, +95k to +200k range)
Last month just a small deviation on this one of just +10k, not enough for a trade. Also
the revision to the previous month was from 91k to 116k, and there was some smallish move
up in the USDJPY and other yen crosses except the EURJPy, but they were not big moves and
did chop around for alot eventually moving a bit higher. In October a slightly bigger dev
but still not enough, +16k but with a -2k revision, the USDJPY did however catch a nice bid
off of this, working up some 40 pips over the next 2.5 hours, GBPJPY up 40 pips in 1.25 hrs.
while CADJPY made an 80 pip rally but took over an hour to get going. Still in terms of a
spike trad it just was a bit too little a bit too late. This one can make some great moves
but that is because it is possible to have some big deviations. Last good deviation was back
in July with a +87 deviation, interesting, the USDJPY rallied about 25-30 pips, EURJPY & GBPJPY
spiked about 30 pips but had good follow thru for an afterspike, while the USDJPY turned around
back down. The CADJPY had the best move with a 35 pip spike and just continued another 40 pips
over the next 40 minutes for a total of 77 pips. The initial move continued for 10 minutes w/o
any pullback. June release had a massive -137 deviation and USDJPY dropped 50 pips in 10 minutes,
while CADJPY dropped 67 pips, EURJPY 63 pips, while GBPJPY melted 80 pips but just continued for
the next half hour reaching a total of 100 pips. The EMini S&P500 should also follow these moves
seen on the Yen Crosses. Although we have traded +/-50k deviations in the past, there have been
times this didn't work so well, so +/-70 is safer, although october's response does show it is
possible to tighten the triggers a bit, without further confirmation of this premise it is still
a gamble to do this...but anywhere between +/-40-70 should be fine, depending on slipage, execution
speed, and whether you have 2 or 3 sets of triggers to use.
If it comes out at +200k or higher, USD/JPY should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at +60k or lower, USD/JPY should drop 40 pips.
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