Profit Mongers @ 7:15 AM, Wednesday November 16 2011
0830 US CPI Ex Food & Energy m/m (+0.1% expected, +0.05% prior, -0.1% to +0.2% range)
Affliated Reports:
Headline CPI m/m (+0.0% expected, +0.3% prior, -0.2% to +0.3% range)
Core CPI y/y (+2.1% expected, +2.0% prior, +1.9% to +2.2% range)
Headline CPI y/y (+3.7% expected, +3.9% prior, +3.4% to +3.8% range)
Last month just a -0.1 on the Core numbers but flat m/m and +0.1 y/y for the headline figures.
Not really big but usdjpy did slowly easy off over the next 90 minutes. This was also seen on
the CADJPY which had a much better move in terms of pips about 45, while $Yen barely made 15
pips. CADJPY is probably the best proxy for risk on/off appetite/aversion there is in the FX
market and it closely mirrors the major stock indices. However EURJPY made about an 85 pip move
and GBPJPY about 50 pips. It is not often that the Core CPI m/m figure comes in with a +/-0.2
tradable deviation, Feb 2010 was the last time. This caused a 20 pip move, but there was no
retracement trade. Many of the +/-0.1 over the past year have yeilded 15-30 pips, some were just
quick blips, others continued, 1 or 2 were whipsaws. The next 0.2 deviation is not until May 2009,
and on this one there was a 15 pip initial spike which continued for the next few minutes to extend
another 15 pips without retracement for a total of +30. As for Housing Starts what for a deviation
of 40-50k to cause a reaction. Best to trade the +/-0.2 deviation and make sure all the other #s
agree, today there is no other US news at the same time, so there should be a pure response just
to the CPI...unless some headline from Europe hits the wires. As for the +/-0.1 deviations this
could be used to take an afterspike trade with a smaller sized position after waiting for a trend
of higher-highs&lows or Lower-highs&lows to develop.
If it comes out at 0.3% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 20-35 pips or CADJPY 30-50 pips
If it comes out at -0.1% or negative, USD/JPY should fall 20-35 pips or CADJPY 30-50 pips
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