0830 US Retail Sales Ex-Autos m/m (+0.2% expected, +0.5% previous, 0.0% to +0.9% range)
Affliated Reports:
US Advance Retail Sales m/m (+0.3% expected, +1.1% previous, -0.3% to +1.3% range)
US Empire Manufacturing (-2.00 expected, -8.48 previous, -7.20 to +5.00 range)
US PPI m/m (-0.1% expected, +0.8% previous, -0.6% to +1.0% range)
US PPI y/y (+6.3% expected, +6.9% previous, +6.0% to +6.6% range)
US Core PPI m/m (+0.1% expected, +0.2% previous, -0.2% to +0.3% range)
US Core PPI y/y (+2.8% expected, +2.5% previous, +2.6% to +3.0% range)
Last month there was a +0.4 deviation on the ex-Autos and +0.6 on headline. The USDJPY popped
about 10 pips higher only and then dropped 25 pips below pre-release, just to rally about a
hour and a half later. CADJPY had a better move of about 25 pips, but it too then sold off
slowly until 10am. Same with other Yen Crosses and the EMini S&P500. This is not very reassuring
for this figure as this was not a bad number and price could have responsed better. Going back
over the past few months there usually are not big deviations and price normally doesn't move
very much. The best thing to do is widen triggers out to +/-0.6, whereas we used +/-0.5 on this
one last month. A deviation of 0.6 should move the main yen pairs and the Equity indices, although
the USDJPY doesn't really make so many pips so trading CADJPY would be the best option to trade
this if you are stuck to using forex, if not the Equity Indices like the EMini S&P would be best.
Of course after getting in on the main ex-Autos number check the Advance or Headline figure to
make sure it agrees, there could also be revisions to the previous months release, so if any of
these conflict with ex-Autos and the deviation is large enough, probably safest to close the
position out. If you are using the Elite weapon you could make sure only to get if all the numbers
deviated the same way but you may sacrifice an earlier entry time to do this. There is also some
inflation figures, the Producer or PPI numbers for the month and cumulative year. This is the
inflation that businesses are paying and will usually get passed onto consumers, so they are relavent.
However lower inflation could mean more stimulus from the Fed, but the Fed would rather see price
inflation as it generally indicates an economy in motion. Empire Manufacturing measures the
manufacturing for the New York area. This one usually doesn't have an immediate effect on price but
can influence the more general current trend in risk appetite.
If RS-ExAutos comes out at +0.8% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 30-50 pips.
If RS-ExAutos comes out at -0.4% or lower, USD/JPY should drop 30-50 pips.
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