Profit Mongers @ 8:36 AM, Thursday November 03 2011
1000 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (53.5 exp, 53.0 prior, 52.0 to 55.0 range)
Last months a slightly positive deviation on this one did lead to a small rally in the
Yen Crosses and Emini S&P. It was only +0.3 higher but after some bad readings on this
a few months ago, just that it can print above 50 is good. In September, a +2.0 deviation
caused a 15 blip on usdjpy, +22 on cadjpy, +25 eurjpy, and about +30 on gbpjpy. In early
September the market took a tumble on renewed concerns about the Eurozone debt problem,
which still continues. So despite the better print the risk aversion sentiment in the
market was too strong for and the small blip was used as a selling opportunity by the
market. In August a -1.2 did cause small drops on the yen crosses but it took time to
develop but if you stuck with it there was a good amount of pips to make, 60 pips on
eurjpy over a half hour, and 50 pips on cadjpy. In July there was just a -0.2 on this
one and not big enough deviation to trigger any sort of trade. The USDJPY actually sold
off about 20 pips which isn't such a bad response. June's release had a small upward
deviation of just +0.6, but the USDJPY did move up some 20 pips over 3 minutes, it was
not exactly a spike trade, but was quite whippy move which resolved upward...price did
continue to to trend upward over the 30 min for a total of 40 pips, despite a quick blip
back down to the pre-release price 7 minutes after the release. Still this is generally
not a deviation that we would get in on. Watch the Employment sub-component for clues to
friday's NFP release.
if 56.0 or higher then buy USDJPY for a potential 20-35 pip move, or buy Yen Cross or EMini
if 50.0 or lower then sell USDJPY for a potential 20-35 pip move, or sell Yen Cross or EMini
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