Profit Mongers @ 6:42 PM, Wednesday November 02 2011
20:30 AUD Retail Sales m/m (+0.4% exp, +0.6% prior, -0.3% to +0.7% range)
Affliated:
AUD Retail Sales ex Inflation q/q (+0.6% exp, +0.3% prior, +0.3% to +1.0% range)
Last months +0.4 had a small short-lived 25 pip pop higher for the 1st minute after the
release then turned around and gradually dropped 30 pips below pre-release price by 40
minutes after the news. September's +0.2 deviation caused a 35-40 pip pop over 4 minutes,
not a bad move for such a small deviation. In August a -0.5 deviation spiked the AUDUSD
down about 45 pips in the 1st minute after the release, about 10 minutes after the release
a new low was reached for a total ov about 55-60 pips, but things turned around and withing
3-4 hours the aussie was trading above the pre-release price. The -0.9 deviation in July
moved the pair about 40 pips over 7 minutes, most of this coming in the initial spike, it
did break the initial low, but not by much. After retracing for 3-4 hours price did drop
again further, but only 15 pips below the former low, cutting out a choppy rangebound price
band. In June, there was a 35-40 pip move up on a +0.7% deviation. A pullback after 6
minutes, but the highs were never regained. Would have expected a bit more. Still it
could have gone for a few more pips and would have been nice if the highs were retested
and broken. In May this had a much nicer move on a -1.0% deviation, causing a nice 60 pip
move down. This one has been doing better, but the response to last month's deviation does
give a hint that the +/-0.5 triggers being used are perhaps a bit too tight and its best
to go with +/-0.6 unless slippage-control can be implemented in quick execution during
volitile post-news price action, and application of more highly guaged risk-controlled
leverage levels.
If it comes out at +1.0% or higher, AUD/USD should rally 40+ pips.
If it comes out at -0.2% or lower, AUD/USD should drop 40+ pips.
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