Profit Mongers @ 8:06 AM, Monday October 31 2011
9:45 US Chicago PMI (59.0 expected, 60.4 prior, 56.0 to 62.5 range)
Chicago PMI is releasedd 3 minutes to special subscribers, so start observing price action
before the number is released to the public at 9:45am. Last month it came out +5.4 higher
and the USDJPY which had rallied into the release, continued up for another 50 pips after
a brief 10 pip dip as the number was released. It came out alongside the University of
Michigan Sentiment number also came out higher at 59.4 versus 57.8 expected. This time
the UofMich number was release last friday so we get this one on its own. The figures out
of the USA have recovered since the drop off in August, and if we can get another print above
the 60 level things will be looking better. UofMich did print at 60.9 versus 58.1 expected,
so a better number on Chicago PMI today will continue this brighter picture as we lead into
the ISM, ADP and finally the NFP on Friday. Both May and June's release were blockbuster
deviations of -5.8 and +6.1. May's negative dev caused a 40 pip move on USDJPY over 20-30
minutes, although the special subscribers did get a 10-15 pip better entry. June's positive
dev lead to a 35-40 pip move but the special subscribers only got a 3-5 pip better entry.
The moves on EURJPY,GBPJPY and CADJPY were even better and the EMini S&P500 also moved very
well. This one really can affect the risk on/off trade.
If it comes out at 64.0 or higher, buy USDJPY for 20-30 pips or buy CADJPY/EMiniS&P500
if it comes out at 54.0 or lower, sell USDJPY for 20-30 pips or sell CADJPY/EMiniS&P500
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