0830 US GDP Annualized - Advanced (+2.5% exp, +1.3% prior,+1.5% to +3.5% range) majority 2-3
Affliated Reports:
US Personal Consumption (+1.9% expected, +0.7% prior, +1.1% to +2.5% range)
US GDP Price Index (+2.4% exp, +2.5% prior, +1.7% to +3.1% range)
US Core PCE q/q (+2.2% expected, +2.3% prior, +1.8% to +2.7% range)
US Initial Jobless Claims (+401k expected, +403k prior, +390k to +410k range)
US Continuing Claims (+3700k expected, +3719k prior, +3650k to +3980k range)
So today we get the 1st reading of GDP for the 3rd quarter, which ended in September. This
is usually the most important of the 3 monthly releases since it is the first, and the next
2 will just modify a bit upon the initial release. Mostly likely to have a surprise on this
one than any of them. Also the weekly jobless numbers are coming in at the same time. The
Initial jobless claims is most important and it's moving average is coming down to this bull/
bear line at 400k, below is good and above is bad, so far the past few week on this it has only
been a bit either side, but if there is a 50k break either side of this key level it could start
to effect risk sentiment. As for the GDP, last month was just a +0.1 but this was the final
release, still the usdjpy rallied about 15 pips, the CADJPY about 40, eurjpy had a very whippy
25 pip blip and switch, while gbpjpy had a more genle 40 pip uptrend. The last Advanced reading
was back in July where it came out with a -0.5 deviation, USDJPY fell about 40 pips over 18 min.
while the CADJPY fell 100 pips, eurjpy dropped but this rallied above pre-release as did cable.
CADJPY correlates to the US stock indices much better. Trading the US Indices themselves is
also a possibility here and should work well. More aggressive traders could use nominal triggers
of +/-0.4 while the more conservative triggers would be more like +/-0.6.
If it comes out at +2.9% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 25-45 pips.
If it comes out at +2.1% or lower, USD/JPY should fall 25-45 pips.
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