Profit Mongers @ 4:41 PM, Monday October 24 2011
1745 NZ CPI q/q (+0.7% expected, +1.0% prior, +0.5% to +0.8% range)
Affliated Reports:
NZ CPI y/y (+4.9% expected, +5.3% prior, +4.7% to +5.1% range)
This one is only released every 3 months and can be a good mover. Alot of times this
one comes out on a Sunday night so the market has less volume than usual. Last time it
came out on a Sunday night, deviating with +0.2% on m/m & y/y and the Kiwi Dollar rallied
about 50 pips. In April, there was a -0.2 dev on q/q and -0.1 y/y and the kiwi dollar
dropped about 30-35 pips in the first minute or 2, pulling back about 38-50% of the
initial spike over 15 minutes, consolidating with sidewise price action before dropping
over the next hour and a half for another 40-45 pip move...seems like the afterspike was
a good opportunity and spike traders may have lost patience with it after the move seemed
to peter out. January's release was just a -0.1 deviation so not a spike trade, price did
however trickle down slowly, and as mentioned started to accelerate 15 minutes later at
the top of the hour, dropping a good 40-50 pips. Deviations of -/+0.2 should be good for
trading, unless slippage is quite bad on your broker. If it seems risky then spike trade
+/-0.3 deviations or just trade the afterspike as the recent releases have had great
afterspike opportunities.
If it comes out at +0.9% or higher, NZD/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at +0.5% or lower, NZD/USD should fall 40 pips.
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