Profit Mongers @ 7:49 AM, Thursday October 20 2011
1000 US Philly Fed (-9.4 expected, -17.5 prior, -16.5 TO +1.0 range)
US Existing Home Sales (4.91M expected, 5.03M prior, 4.7M TO 5.1M range)
Affliated Reports:
US Leading Indicators (+0.2% expected, +0.3% prior, -0.1% TO +0.5% range)
US Existing Home Sales Change (-2.3% expected, +7.7% prior, -6.6% TO +1.4 range)
Philly Fed did have some big drops a few months ago and that really made the market worry that
a double dip recession was more likely. Although the USDJPY only dropped 15 pips on the big
-35 deviation, there were better moves in the EMini S&P and the other yen crosses had much better
moves of 60-70 pips. This month the Existing home Sales gets released at the same time. Back in
August this was the same, both bits of news were released together and Existing home sales was
also lower by about -0.23M so it did help but this is not really a big enough deviation. In Sept.
this one came out on its own and was +0.27M and while there was little in the way of a spike, price
did slowly drift up, but only for half an hour until some other news hit and it turned back down.
A good significant deviation on Exising Home Sales is +/-0.5M and for Philly Fed it is +/-15. If
both of these bits of news hit deviations that large there should be a decent enough move to make
a spike trade worth while. If one deviates that large but the other doesn't but still deviates a
bit in the same direction which agrees with the larger one, then there should be a good opportunity
to take a scalp trade.
--If it Philly comes out at +5.0 or higher and EHS is +5.4M or higher,
USD/JPY should rally about 20-35 pips.
--If it Philly comes out at -25.0 or lower and EHS is +4.4M or lower,
USD/JPY should fall about 20-35 pips.
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