Profit Mongers @ 7:08 AM, Friday October 14 2011
0830 US Retail Sales Ex-Autos m/m (+0.3% expected, +0.1% previous, 0.0% to +1.0% range)
Affliated Reports:
US Advance Retail Sales m/m (+0.7% expected, 0.0% previous, +0.2% to +1.6% range)
US Import Price Index m/m (-0.4% expected, -0.4% previous, +2.0% to +0.4% range)
US Import Price Index y/y (+12.4% expected, +13.0% previous, +12.0% to +13.0% range)
Last monthe this one only deviated -0.1 and Advanced -0.2, Core PPI, an inflation figure also
was lower on Core but higher on the main reading. The USDJPY dropped about 15 pips over 12
minutes. In August, a +0.3 deviation caused only a 10 pip pop higher on the USDJPY but it
started heading upwards before the news was released again. July's release was mixed but
came with slightly higher PPI inflation number. There was only about 10 pips of choppy price
action on the USDJPY. In June however a +0.1 on Core and a +0.3 on headline moved the USDJPY
about 40 pips higher over 20 minutes, a very good response to this, but does not appear to
consistently react so well, as seen with last month's similar deviation. Aggressive traders
with quick execution and slippage control can go as low as +/-0.3 triggers as in February
even a -0.2 deviation was good enough to cause a 30 pip move. In the past we have used +/-0.5
or even +/-0.6 for more conservative traders looking for some continuation beyone the initial
spike. The Emini S&P and other stock indices instruments should also react well to this news,
and could have more liquidity and less whippy price action. If you opt for a tighter dev then
exit if price actioni does move your way immediately.
If RS-ExAutos comes out at +0.8% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 30-50 pips.
If RS-ExAutos comes out at -0.2% or lower, USD/JPY should drop 30-50 pips.
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