2130 AU Employment Change (10K exp, -9.7k prior, -10k to +23.0k range)
Affliated Reports:
AU Unemployment Rate (+5.3% expected, +5.3% prior, +5.2% to +5.4% range)
AU Participation Rate (+65.6% expected, +65.6% prior, +65.5% to +65.6% range)
AU Fulltime Employment Change (-12.6k prior)
AU Parttime Employment Change (+2.9k prior)
Last month a -19.7 deviation dropped the aussie 55 pips, it then just chopped sidewise
in a 20 pip range before recovering as the EUropean session stated. Price did not continue
past the initial reaction spike, so there was danger if any slippage occurred at the entry.
This came with an in increase in Full time jobs to -12.6kfrom -22.2k, while Parttime jobs
dropped from 22.1k to 2.9k. So the Fulltime jobs did not agree, but it was still under 0.
This move could have gone further and actually continued if the Fulltime number had agreed.
The Rate was higher as well, which is negative and this did agree with the deviation in the
Change figure. In August, a -10.2 deviation on the Net Change number, came out with a +0.2
deviation in Rate. This came with a drop in Fulltime job from -22.2k from 59.0k, and the
Partime jobs grew to +22.1k from -35.6k. Price dropped about 100 pips in 3 minutes, including
a continuation past the initial reaction in the 1st minute of about 30 pips. Although price
did turn back up then, back during this time the Aussie was in rally mode, but such a large
move on a comparable small deviation on the Net figure was all down to the big drop in Full
Time Jobs. In July a +50 pip spike came from a +8.1 deviation with no change in the Rate
figure. Price did continue after a small 15 pip pullback for a total of about 55 pips over
10 minutes, and thus a 25 pip afterspike trade opportunity, and again about 90 minute after
the release another high was made and the big 3/4 decade of 10750, and thus another afterspike
trade opportunity for those trading thru the asian session. Things calmed down in Europe but
again tested highs during the US session. Such a good continuation on this small deviation
was due to the growth in Fulltime Jobs to +59.0k from -22.0k the month before. Unfortunately
there is no expectations for this figure, instead you just compare it to last month's figure.
Parttime jobs dropped to -35.6k from +29.8k the previous month, but growth in fulltime jobs
is more important. You could trade a tighter deviation on the Net figure and trade based
on the deviation on Fulltime jobs. A deviation of +/-50k on Fulltime jobs will move the aussie
well even if the Net Change agrees but with only a +/-10 deviation. Fulltime jobs is not on
the Autoclicker, so safest to use a wider dev on Change and quickly check that Fulltime Jobs
Changes agrees. The Rate figure is on the Autoclick so make sure it agrees, if it conflicts
with Jobs Change get out.
If Employment Change comes out at 30K or higher (and UR is flat or lower),
and FullTime Jobs did not decrease from the prior month,
AUD/USD should rally 50-80 pips.
If Employment comes out at -10K or lower, (and UR is flat or higher),
and Fulltime Jobs have decreased from the prior month,
AUD/USD should drop 50-80 pips.
Visit Profit Mongers website and check out our live trading room!