0430 UK Claimant Count Change (+24.0K expected, +20.3k previous, +15.0k to +30.0k)
Affiliated Releases:
Claimant Count Rate (+5.0% expected, +4.9% previous, 4.9% to 5.1% range)
ILO Unemployment Rate 3mnts (+8.0% expected, +7.9% previous, +7.9% to +8.0% range)
Avg Weekly Earnings 3mnths (+2.8% expected, +2.8% prior, +2.6% to +3.1% range)
Weekly Earnings exBonus 3mths (+1.9% expected, +2.1% prior, +1.7% to +2.2% range)
Last month this came out -11.7 lower, which is good, it moved up about 35-40 pips, however
it appears there was a bit of a leak in the minute before the report. Despite this after a
pullback of about 50%, the pound continued to make slow upward trending gains, making about
a 65 pip move on the afterspike trade. The Rate was also -0.1 lower, also good, the earnings
and ILO figures were flat.In August this one came out with a +17.1 deviation, which is bad,
but at the same time the vote count for the last MPC was released where the 2 previous hawks
retreated. Thus cable had a 70 pip pop lower over 3 minutes, yet then just turned around and
rally some 180 pips by the open of the New York Session. Again a situation where the news
acts as a punctuation point to clear out old longs, trap new shorts, etc. Despite the vote
count this was actually a decent deviation for this number, however the moves on this one are
usually quite short and can tend to reverse the direction of the initial spike after some time.
July's +9.3 deviation made cable shoot down about 35 pips in the minute after the release but
bounced quickly at least 20 pips and went sidewise for half an hour before breaking above pre-
release. Despite this being a decent move, it was very quick and nearly just a blip. June's
+13.1 deviation caused a solid 50 pip move down in the first 2 minutes, followed by about 20
minutes of consolidation before a further move down of 35 pips over 10 minutes, but that didn't
end it. Price continued to drop for hours, well into the NY session for a total of nearly 200
pips. June's deviation was actually smaller than August's where we saw little continuation of
the initial spike, and one would think that the vote count would have helped, but it seemed to
just create more noise.
If it CCC out at +37.0K or higher, GBP/USD should sell off about 30-50 pips.
If it comes out at +11.0K or lower, GBP/USD should rally about 30-50 pips.
Visit Profit Mongers website and check out our live trading room!