0830 CAD GDP q/q (+0.3% exp, +0.2% prior, +0.1% to +0.5% range )
Affliated News Releases at 08:30 :
CAD GDP y/y (+2.3% expected, +2.0% prior, +2.0% to +2.4% range )
CAD Building Permits (-0.6% prior )
US Core PCE m/m (+0.2% expected, +0.2% prior, +0.1% to +0.3% range )
US Core PCE y/y (+1.7% expected, +1.6% prior, +2.0% to +2.4% range )
US PCE Deflator y/y (+2.9% expected, +2.8% prior, +1.3% to +1.8% range )
US Personal Income m/m (+0.1% expected, +0.3% prior, -0.3% to +0.3% range )
US Personal Spending m/m (+0.2% expected, +0.8% prior, -0.2% to +0.4% range )
The report can move the Canadian Dolar quite well, probably because in Canada they release
fresh GDP data each month, instead of the usual Preliminary, Revised, Advanced and Final.
Last month a -0.1 deviation on m/m and -0.5 on the annualized figure caused a brief 20-25
pip pop higher in USDCAD. Not a big enough deviation for us to trade yet still reassuring
response to this small deviation. July's release came out at the same time as the US GDP.
Both the US and Canadian GDP figures came out lower, with CAD GDP coming in with a -0.4
deviation. The USDCAD went up 50 pips over 5 minutes with hardly any pullback. The pair
then went sidewise for 12 minutes before getting another push up for an additional 30 pips
for a total of 80 pips within 30 minutes after the number was released. The EURCAD and
CADJPY had even big moves as US Dollar weakening due to the -0.3 deviation on the US GDP
number at the same time. In both May and June releases, a +0.1 deviation did little and
the CAD actually weakened a bit, best to avoid these small deviations. In April the -0.2
deviation printed at the same time as some other US Data, there an initial 20 pip spike on
the USDCAD, oscillated for 3 minutes and then continued its move down for another 30 pips,
for a total of about 50 pips over 45 minutes. A +/-0.2% should work if you have don't have
slippage, otherwise +/-0.3 for more conservative traders. Also when trading a +/-0.2 you
might want to try and hold on for the move over the 30-60 minute time horizon, but it depends
on how the initial spike is. If there is a good sized spike then best to bank the pips rather
than wait. There is some minor US data released at the same time which should not interfere
with trading the CAD, however if for instance the both the US data CAD data is strong, then a
long on CADJPY or a short on EURCAD should yeild more pips than a plain vanilla trade on the
USDCAD pair, same for the inverse, both US and CAD data weak, short CADJPY or long EURCAD,
if US data is weak and CAD data is strong a short USDCAD, and the inverse, weak CAD data and
strong US data is best traded with a long USDCAD trade.
If it comes out at +0.6% or higher, USD/CAD should drop 30-40 pips.
If it comes out at 0.0% or lower, USD/CAD should rally 30-40 pips.
**********************************
9:45 US Chicago PMI (55.0 expected, 56.5 prior, 52.0 to 58.0 range)
9:55 USD UoM Consumer Sentiment (57.8 expected, 57.8 prior, 56.0 to 59.0 range)
Chicago PMI is releasedd 3 minutes to special subscribers, so start observing price action
before the number is released to the public at 9:45am. The +2.8 deviation caused a +25 pip
move on USDJPY over about half an hour before dropping. CADJPY had a slightly better move
of 30 pips over 17 minutes. The July deviation was only -1.4 deviation only caused chop, so
it is better to wait until the number is actually released before committing to a trade, even
if the move starts 3 minutes before when released to the special subscribers it usually is only
a small amount of pips ahead of where the wider market get the number. Both May and June's
release were blockbuster deviations of -5.8 and +6.1. May's negative dev caused a 40 pip move
on USDJPY over 20-30 minutes, although the special subscribers did get a 10-15 pip better entry.
June's positive dev lead to a 35-40 pip move but the special subscribers only got a 3-5 pip
better entry. The moves on EURJPY,GBPJPY and CADJPY were even better and the EMini S&P500
also moved very well. This one really can affect the risk on/off trade. UoM comes out 10 min.
later and can support or conflict with the Chicago PMI release. on August 12th there was a big
deviation on this one, it came out at 54.9 below the 63.3 expected. The USDJPY dropped only
about 10 minutes but there were great moves on CADJPY of 45 pips. On the next release on Aug 26th
the market rallied on the fact that it was not a horrible number as some thought, although was
still -0.6. Again sept.16th release was +1.8 and reassured the market a bit and usdjpy rallied
20 pips. However really the point here is to watch this one on top of the Chicago PMI, see if
they both agree and if one or the other has a big deviation then the market will trend. Listen
to the wires about any rumors heading into the release, as the move could start before the news
is even released.
Chicago PMI, watch out for 3 minutes before...
If it comes out at 60 or higher, buy USDJPY for 20-30 pips or buy CADJPY/GBPJPJY/EMiniS&P500
if it comes out at 50 or lower, sell USDJPY for 20-30 pips or sell CADJPY/GBPJPJY/EMiniS&P500
UoM Cons Sent
If it comes out at 62 or higher, buy USDJPY for 20-30 pips or buy CADJPY/GBPJPJY/EMiniS&P500
if it comes out at 50 or lower, sell USDJPY for 20-30 pips or sell CADJPY/GBPJPJY/EMiniS&P500
careful is the 2 bits of data conflict...
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