0830 US NonFarm Payrolls (+70K expected, +117k prior, -5k to +160k range)
Affliated Late
US Unemployment Rate (9.1% expected, 9.1% prior, 9.0% to 9.2%)
US NonFarm Payrolls Revision (54k last month)
US Private Payrolls (+100k expected, +154k prior, +5k to +165k)
US Manufacturing Payrolls (0k expected, +24k prior, -15k to 20k)
US Avg Hourly Earnings m/m (+0.2% expected, +0.4% prior, 0.0% to +0.3%)
US Avg Hourly Earnings y/y (+2.2% expected, +2.3% prior, +2.0% to +2.5%)
US Avg Weekly Hours (34.3hrs expected, 34.3hrs prior, 34hrs to 34.4hrs)
Last month's figure came out +26k higher and the USDJPY jumped up 50-55 pips in the 1st
minute after the release. This is after it dropped 15-20 pips in the minute before the
release. This is not a large deviation and we have found that triggers of +/-50 work on
this one quite well. Price did not maintain those highs and sold off again over the next
hour back down below the lows printed ahead of the release. The EURUSD jumped up about 40
pips but whipsawed about and gradually went lower. Good our deviations kept us out that
isn't to say there is not trading opportunities to be taken trading the types of reversals
that can happen. Better to look at July's -72 deviation which caused the USDJPy to drop
85 pips over 6 minutes, but failing to really move off those lows and continuing the rest
of the session chopping around in the new lower range, eventually making a full 100 pip
move. The EURUSD at first dropped with Risk Aversion driving it about 45 pips lower for
2-3 minutes, until bad US Fundamentals started to weaken the Greenbackand the pair rebounded
130 pips off its lows within 20 minutes of the release. So far US ADP has printed slightly
lower this week. On Thrusday the weekly jobless figures will come out and on Thursday the
Employment Sub-component will shed some more light on the jobs situation in the USA. The
Challenger Job Cuts also came out lower at 47% below the 59.4% expectation, but this is good
as few job cuts means fewer people losing their job. Initial Jobless Claims has come back
down to 400k, below which is considered relatively good and was where this # was back in
April. Watch out for the Unemployment Rate, lower Rate is Good as is higher Employment
Change, best to have both figures line up. A deviation of +/-0.2 or more is considered
significant. Last month we can see the -0.1 did little to help the small gain in the USDJPY,
but the +0.2 in July did add fuel to the drop that time. Naturally watch out for revisions
to last month's number, and sometimes to previous months before that. The figures above
are current as of Wednesday night, but could change when IJC & the Emp. sub-component of ISM
Manufacturing are released before the NFP. Of the 82 analysts polled by Bloomberg, the majority
put the estimate between 30-107k. Safest to spike trade this on USDJPY or the EMini S&P as they
respond consistently. EURUSD or other major pairs might move 1 way first then reverse. See
the charts and you may notice a pattern, at first they move depending on Risk Sentiment (weak
numbers = Risk Aversion = strong USD before they move according to US fundamentals (ie weak
numbers = weak currency).
If Employment comes out at 120k or higher, and unemployment Rate is flat or lower,
USDJPY should rally 50+ pips
If Employment comes out at 20K or lower, and unemployment Rate is flat or higher,
USDJPY should sell off 50+ pips
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