21:30 AUD Retail Sales m/m (+0.3% exp, +0.1% prior, -0.3% to +0.7% range)
Affliated News Releases -
AUD Private Capital Exp m/m (+4.0% expected, +3.4% prior, 1.3% to 5.5% range)
Last month a -0.5 deviation spiked the AUDUSD down about 45 pips in the 1st minute
after the release, about 10 minutes after the release a new low was reached for a
total ov about 55-60 pips, but things turned around and withing 3-4 hours the aussie
was trading above the pre-release price. The -0.9 deviation in July moved the pair
about 40 pips over 7 minutes, most of this coming in the initial spike, it did break
the initial low, but not by much. After retracing for 3-4 hours price did drop
again further, but only 15 pips below the former low, cutting out a choppy rangebound
price band. In June, there was a 35-40 pip move up on a +0.7% deviation. A pullback
after 6 minutes, but the highs were never regained. Would have expected a bit more.
Still it could have gone for a few more pips and would have been nice if the highs
were retested and broken. In May this had a much nicer move on a -1.0% deviation,
causing a nice 60 pip move down. Nearly all of the move took place in the 1st minute
after the release, and then just chopped around the lows. This one does not have the
best history of consistency, December 2010 had a nice -1.5 deviation and caused an
immediate 40 pip drop in the 1st minute after the release, however despite this large
deviation there was no continuation. On March 1st 2010, a +0.7 deviation caused a
whipsaw 20-30 pips down and up, then a -0.9 in Feb 2010 a sweet 50 pip spike with
61% pullback after 15 minutes for a good afterspike trade. Careful as alot of the
time the all of the move occurs in the 1st minute. If you can get a good fill then
you could tighten the triggers to +/-0.6 but any slippage could be dangerous because
of this so best to stick wider triggers like +/-0.8.
If it comes out at +1.1% or higher, AUD/USD should rally 40+ pips.
If it comes out at -0.5% or lower, AUD/USD should drop 40+ pips.
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