0815 US ADP Employment (208k expected, 217k prior, +171k to +295k range)
Just a +37 deviation last month and the usdjpy just blipped up about 10 pips and reversed lower.
In Feb a +47 caused a whopsaw and based on the performance of this indicator in the previous
months it is necessary to widen out the triggers on this. Of cours in January there was a
whopping +197k deviation which really moved the market, making the USDJPPY rally 80 pips in 15
minutes. This data release is supposed to give a hint about how the NFP data is likely to come
out, but often it is wrong. For instance in January, despite this high ADP reading, the NFP
figure actually deviated lower. The Yen has been weak since it strengthened a week after the
earthquake, all the yen crosses have been moving higher. Look out for a resumption of the
move higher if there is a sell off resulting from a lower than expected reading.
If it comes out at +278k or higher, USD/JPY should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at +138k or lower, USD/JPY should drop 40 pips.
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20:30 AU Retail Sales m/m (+0.4% expected, +0.4% prior, 0.0% to +1.0% range)
Affliated News Releases at 08:30 -
AUD Building Approvals m/m (+4.0% expected, -15.9% prior, -8.0% to +13.0% range)
AUD Private Sector Credit m/m (0.3% expected, 0.3% prior, 0.2% to 0.5% range)
This one is a bit incosistent, often with devitions causing either quick dips or whipsaws.
Many of the releases have occurred on a Sunday during reduced liquidity.
Aggressive traders could try +/-0.5, and this is what we have used in the past, but I think it
is better to be cautious and use +/-0.6 triggers. Traders who experience any slippage could
even go out to +/-0.7.
Be aware that sometimes Austrailian news gets delayed because of the way the numbers are
converted electronically, so if there is any strong movement before the number comes out then
do not take the trade.
If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, AUD/USD should rally 40+ pips.
If it comes out at -0.2% or lower, AUD/USD should drop 40+ pips.
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