1500 NZD Interest Rate Decision (2.75% expected, 3.0% prior, 2.5% to 3.0% range)
This month's release is a bit more interesting as there is some variation amoungst the analysts,
although the general consensus is that the RBNZ will cut 25 basis points. 6 of the 15 analysts
surveyed expect a more bold move out of the Central Bank actually cutting a double the usual
amount at 50 basis points or 0.5%, 5 analysts expect the bank to hold at 3%, and 4 of the 15
expect only a 0.25% cut. This appears to be a trade no matter what. If they cut 0.5% it will
be very bearish, and if they hold it will be very bearish, however even if they do the expected
0.25% this will still be a bit bearish as nearly a third of estimates where for a hold. A 0.25%
is priced into the NZD at the moment, confirmation should provoke a bit of a selloff, however
the best move will be on a 0.5% or hold.
The reason the RBNZ has given hints of changing direction is due to the bad earthquake recently.
Although the Central Bank is independant the Prime Minister has been pressuring the Bank for a
cut. Growth forecasts for the country's stalled economy have been reduced. However with the
ongoing inflation pressure, especially with sharply higher oil prices Bollard may choose to not
bow to political pressure and hold. The bank's policy statement specifically mentions how the
bank will respond to economic slowdowns due to natural disasters. Interest Rate Swaps indicate
a quarter point cut. Last month Bollard said it was best to not hike until more obvious signs
of inflation occur, same old story of central bankers not considering higher commodity prices as
inflation, they are concerned about wage inflation and other secondary factors. So he does
sound like a bit of a dove and will probably cut. The economy was slowing before the quake with
retail sales and housing demand weak. CPI is higher a 4%, above the bank's 1-3% target.
Moodies said commercial banks will need to see commitment on stimulus from the RBNZ before they
lower mortgage rates to help the battered housing sector.
-If they hold rates, NZD/USD should rally 50-80 pips.
-If they cut rates by 0.5%, NZD/USD should drop 50-80 pips.
-If they cut rates by 0.25%, its more of a gamble but NZD/USD should ease 20-40 pips, look for
confirmation of direction based on initial response.
* It is not suggested to spike trade the 0.25% expected cut, just 0.5% cut or hold
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1930 AU Employment Change and Unemployment Rate (20K expected, 24k prior, -10k to 35k range)
Affliated Reports:
AU Unemployment Rate (5.0% expected, 5.0% prior, 4.8% to 5.1% range)
This one can move the Australian Dollar very nicely, however it can be tricky due to delays
caused by the way the data is released in Australia. Sometimes the Change figure will come out a
few seconds before the Rate figure, and this will cause the market to spike one way and then
reverse hard the other way. The best example of this was in November when a small positive
deviation on the change figure came out causing a bit of an overreaction with a 50 pip spike up,
then a few seconds later very bad +0.4 deviation came out on the Rate and price reversed 100
pips. February had no significant deviation and caused a 50 pip whipsaw, and in January lower
deviation on the Change figure moved the AUDUSD down 50 pips despite a lower and thus BETTER
Unemployment Rate.
If Employment Change comes out at 40K or higher (and UR is flat or lower), AUD/USD should rally
50 pips.
If Employment comes out at -20K or lower, (and UR is flat or higher), AUD/USD should drop 50
pips.
If UR comes out at 5.3% or higher, (and Emp.Change is flat or lower), AUD/USD should drop 50
pips.
If UR comes out at 4.7% or lower, (and Emp.Change is flat or higher), AUD/USD should rally 50
pips.
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