0830 US CPI Ex Food & Energy m/m (0.1% expected, 0.1% prior, range 0.0% to 0.2%)
Headline CPI m/m (0.3% expected, 0.5% prior, range 0.2% to 0.5%)
Core CPI y/y (0.9% expected, 0.8% prior, range 0.8% to 1.1%)
Headline CPI m/m (1.6% expected, 1.5% prior, range 1.4% to 1.7%)
US Initial Jobless Claims (400k expected, 383k prior, 370k to 450k range)
US Continuing Claims (3893k expected, 3888k prior, 3830k to 3920k range)
The Inflation Data from the USA is being released today in the usual 8:30am timeslot, crammed in with the weekly jobless
figures, just to add a bit of spin to things. There have been reactions to deviations of +/-0.1 but not always very good
ones, a good example is back in July where the Core m/m deviated +0.1 while the rest were flat or deviated -0.1 and the
USDJPY surged 30 pips in about 8 minutes. The opposite can be seen in May where Core m/m was -0.1 and the other 3 were
all lower by -0.1 or -0.2 deviations and still the usdjpy merely blipped down 15-20 pips and was right back to
prerelease. Having said this, the last time there was a +/-0.2 deviation on Core CPI m/m was in Feb 2010 and the USDJPY
droped 30 pips in 2 minutes, but there was no continuation. So this can be a bit unreliable, to muddle the picture the
weekly jobless numbers could affect things, these used to be more tradable during the 2008 crash, but generally a
deviation of 50 or 100 on these, especially the Initial Jobless Claims can affect the USDJPY, remember a higher number is
bad. So if you can get filled near pre-release price a spike trade using +/-0.2 triggers, a positive deviation is a buy,
however if not is safer to either wait for all the numbers to be released and if they agree get in on a pullback, or try
set triggers for the higly unlikely senario of a +/-0.3 deviation.
If it comes out at 0.3% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 25-40 pips.
If it comes out at -0.1% or negative, USD/JPY should fall 25-40 pips.
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1000 US Philly Fed (21 expected, 19.3 prior, 15 TO 25 range)
A big deviation in November of +17.5 caused a 30 pip spike on USDJPY and about 4 points on the Emini S&P500 Future (16 ticks), the USDJPY did continue up for an additional 30 pips over the next hour, while the ES Contract another 4-5 points (16-20 ticks). This USDCHF had a smaller initial spike but the follow thru was very good for 120 pips over the same hour, while move on the eurusd was down but more choppy. Probably best to focus on USDJPY, USDCHF or EMini S&P. December's +9.3 deviation did move the USDJPY about 20-25 pips, and the last larger deviation was back in August where a -14.7 where this caused a 35-40 pip spike down in USDJPY but there was no continuation and the pair started to chop after the spike, then reversed. Although a -4.9 dev in July did cause a 40 pip move on USDJPY, after last month's reaction it is better to wait for a larger type of deviation, this is much more reliable. However the last time this indicator got into the low 30's was in 2004.
--If it comes out at 33.0 or higher, USD/JPY should rally about 30 pips.
--If it comes out at 9.0 or lower, USD/JPY should fall about 30 pips.
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