Profit Mongers @ 10:51 AM, Wednesday February 09 2011
Not alot going on this week, but here is a bit of news.
1930 AU Employment Change and Unemployment Rate (17.5K expected, 2.3k prior, 4k to 35k range)
Affliated Reports:
AU Unemployment Rate (5.0% expected, 5.0% prior, 4.9% to 5.1% range)
This one can move the Australian Dollar very nicely, however it can be tricky due to delays caused by the way the data is released in Australia. Sometimes the Change figure will come out a few seconds before the Rate figure, and this will cause the market to spike one way and then reverse hard the other way. Generally about a 20k deviation is good on the change figure to get a trade or a +0.2 deviation on the Rate, but avoid a conflict. In January there was a -22.7 deviation and the AUDUSD sold off, but the Rate was actually better, improving from 5.1% to 5.0%. The whole move was in the 1st minute, and the price then reversed. In a similar fashion most of the move occurred in the 1st minute back in December but with a flat Rate and strong positive change deviation of +34.6 there was opportunities to trade after the release. The November release was memorable, in this case a small positive deviation on the change figure came out causing a bit of an overreaction with a 50 pip spike up, then a few seconds later very bad +0.4 deviation came out on the Rate and price reversed 100 pips. There was a brief opportunity to get short after the bad Rate figure was released. This one is probably too risky to spike trade and is better to wait on the sidelines and watch if both numbers line up, be patient and wait for a good pullback to go with the trend. If there is an delay between the releases of the 2 figures there maybe an opportunity to get in quickly if there is a conflict and the 1st release moved the AUDUSD significantly.
If Employment Change comes out at 38K or higher (and UR is flat or lower), AUD/USD should rally 50 pips.
If Employment comes out at -3K or lower, (and UR is flat or higher), AUD/USD should drop 50 pips.
If UR comes out at 5.3% or higher, (and Emp.Change is flat or lower), AUD/USD should drop 50 pips.
If UR comes out at 4.7% or lower, (and Emp.Change is flat or higher), AUD/USD should rally 50 pips.
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