Profit Mongers @ 4:38 PM, Monday January 24 2011
2130 AU CPI q/q (0.7% expected, 0.7% prior, 0.6% to 0.9% range) -
Affliated Reports
AU CPU y/y (3.0% expected, 2.8% prior, 2.8% to 3.2% range)
AU CPI Trimmed Mean q/q (0.7% expected, 0.6% prior, 0.5% to 0.8% range)
AU CPI Trimmed Mean y/y (2.6% expected, 2.5% prior, 2.5% to 2.8% range)
AU CPI Weighted Median q/q (0.7% expected, 0.5% prior, 0.5% to 0.9% range)
AU CPI Weighted Median y/y (2.5% expected, 2.3% prior, 2.3% to 2.8% range)
Like New Zealand the CPI figures come out quarterly from Australia. This news switched to 6 figures in 2008 which makes it a bit more complicated to trade, but based on the price response in April and January, the main CPI q/q appears to influence price the most effectively. The CPI Trimmed Mean q/q is also important, but naturally if most if not all of the 6 numbers deviating in the same direction provides the most optimum conditions for a decent price move. The past 2 months price spiked in the 1st minute and then went sidewise for 20 minutes before the move extended. So if spike trading based on main CPI q/q is too risky some patience could provide a trade, or use the Elite edition of SNW to wait for a deviation on 2 or more of the figures. Last month the main CPI q/q & Trimmed Mean q/q only deviated by -0.1 but there was still a good move, this was when there were larger deviation on some of the other figures of up to -0.3, and this is the indication that the move could provide some good follow thru. Only back in April 2009 did the main CPI q/q deviate negatively while the Trimmed Mean & Weighted Median deviated positively, there was still an initial move down of 15 pips, then only 10 pips above pre-release before going back down again, so if you do spike trade the main CPI q/q there should be time to exit if conflict occur.
If it comes out at 0.9% or higher, AUD/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at 0.5% or lower, AUD/USD should fall 40 pips.
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