Profit Mongers @ 8:45 AM, Wednesday December 22 2010
1 more release today:
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1645 NZ GDP q/q (0.1% expected, 0.2% prior, -0.3% to +0.5% range)
Affliated Reports:
NZ GDP q/q (1.8% expected, 1.9% prior, 1.4% to 2.2% range)
- Unlike other GDP releases this one only comes out every 3 months, so it can provide more of a surprise than the usual advanced, preliminary, and final monthly releases from other countries. It can provide a nice spike trade with a good deviation. A -/+0.2 deviation can work for 25-30 pips if you are quick or use set take profit limit orders, and as can be seen in the December release last year after this blip down in the first minute, price did roll over back down again for a good afterspike trade. As always watch out for deviation on the y/y figure to agree with the main q/q deviation direction.
- New Zealand economy may have slowed down alot, not only was there a drought but there was also the worst earthquake in 80 years which has hit manufacturing. RBNZ's Bollard did lower expectations of when rates would hike due to this slow down, which is especially felt in consumer confidence and housing. Bollard's own estimates on Dec. 9th was for 0.3% but this was before key reports in manufacturing sales and homebuilding, thus most analyst's have lowered their own estimates which reflects in the 0.1% figure expected for this news.
--If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, NZD/USD should rally 40-50 pips.
--If it comes out at -0.2% or lower, NZD/USD should drop 40-50 pips.
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May the Pips be with you,
Magister Pips
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