Profit Mongers @ 7:27 PM, Monday December 06 2010
Hey folks,
We have 2 news releases to trade tomorrow:
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0430 UK Industrial Production m/m (0.3% expected) - Range of Estimate -0.2 to +0.6
This economic indicator has not given a good deviation since August and always comes out with the less important Manufacturing Production and sometimes with PPI. A lower reading on this news can give the GBPUSD a reason to move based on technical factors and order flow. The -0.8 deviation in August caused an initial 20 pip spike down followed by another 15 pips over the next 4 minutes without retracement, then retracing to 38% after 10 minutes and then producing a further 35 pip run down further. The -0.8 dev in June initially caused a whipsaw but did resolve downwards. A +1.7 deviation in May caused a 30 pip upmove yet the +0.5 deviation in April caused a 60 pip upmove. After last week stellar Manufacturing PMI number it will be interesting to see if there can be a higher deviation on this news figure.
If it comes out at 0.8% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 30-50 pips
If it comes out at -0.2% or lower, GBP/USD should drop 30-50 pips
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0900 Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision (no change @ 1.00% expected)
The market is unanimous in expecting no change,just like last month - which saw the CAD sell off when no further hike was seen, the USDCAD moved up 80 pips. Look for commentary to help drive a CAD move if they stay on hold as expected.
--If they hike rates to 1.25% or higher, USD/CAD should plummet 100+ pips.
--If they keep rates steady and turn sharply dovish and worrysome, USD/CAD should rally 50-70 pips as the markets price in a long pause from the BOC.
--If they keep rates steady yet maintain enough of a hawkish stance to hint they may raise rates in January, USD/CAD should steadily drop 50 pips.
Futures traders, remember to reverse triggers.
--If they hike rates to 1.25% or higher, 6C should rally 100+ pips.
--If they keep rates steady and turn sharply dovish and worrysome, 6C should drop 50-70 pips as the markets price in a long pause from the BOC.
--If they keep rates steady yet maintain enough of a hawkish stance to hint they may raise rates in January, 6C should steadily rally 50 pips.
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For those trading forex or futures in the Profit Mongers room, I am running GBP Industrial Production and Doug is running CAD Interest Rates.
To our success!
Sir Pipsalot sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com
Visit Profit Mongers website and check out our live trading room!
Visit Profit Mongers website and check out our live trading room!