Ralph Shell @ 1:38 PM, Wednesday November 24 2010
While the global equities markets were able to shrug off yesterday's negativity, currencies remained concerned with the European malaise. Interest rates were soaring in Ireland and Portugal, and creeping higher in Spain. The credit rating of Ireland was reduced by a rating agency. Later in the day the details of a draconian austerity budget was announced which included an increase in the value added tax to 23% by 2014, a reduction in the minimum wage, a 10% reduction in the wages of new public sector employees, tighter pension rules and further cuts in social welfare spending. The government vowed to leave it's corporate tax rate unchanged at 12.5%, the lowest in Europe, and a point of contention in the euro community.
The lack of further Korean peninsula hostilities helped equities in Asia, and Europe, and then allowed US markets to come storming back after yesterdays wash out. There was some positive domestic news which the market chose to trade but the news was not all bullish. First time unemployment claims did decline to 409K, the lowest since July 2008 as reported by CNN. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment was also better, 71.6 better than the forecast at 69.5, and the previous period's 69.3. The market chose to ignore the reduction in Core Durable Goods Orders, a leading indicator, which was down 2.7% rather than the +0.2% anticipated. New home sales were lower than expected, at 283k, down from last month's 308K.
Trading the good news and ignoring the bad would be considered a bullish indicator in most markets but when trading pairs, we have another dimension. Perhaps the euro's weakness is more pervasive than anticipated, and the USD ends up being bought because it has fewer problems.
Usually when there is a major holiday traders are inclined to reduce their position. At the CME yesterday that was not the case in the euro futures market. The open interest in the euro futures went up 7,827 contracts to 187,189 contracts. Yesterday the EURUSD tumbled from a high of 1.3632 to a low of 1.3361, and closed poorly. Open interest going up on a hard down day is usually a bearish indicator. We have made a new low on the move today, but this market is now consolidating.
The balance of the week usually produces a thinly traded volatile market with most of the North American traders on holiday. Our preference is to enjoy the holiday, and return to the markets Sunday evening, but should the thinly traded session take the euro back toward the 1.3475 area we are inclined to be a seller. With near instant news and a rapidly changing world, a lot can happen, but we doubt the euro debt issues are going to be resolved.
Author: Ralph Shell - ForexRazor Analyst - Graduated from a small Ohio liberal arts college. Graduate studies in economics and history at Duke University. Ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets. Former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. Member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years.