Ralph Shell @ 12:57 PM, Wednesday October 06 2010
Today's economic data continues to provide the back drop for continued USD weakness. Prior to the beginning of the US session, the Germans announced a m/m increase in factory orders by 3.4%, much above the anticipated 0.9% increase. Following this we had negative reports on US job market. In the more significant ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, the survey showed a loss of 39k jobs rather than the increase anticipated of 23k jobs. Perhaps the unpredictable Friday non-farm payroll report will fail to confirm, but it is good enough for the market today.
This data enhances the arguments of Federal Reserve Governors Evans and and Dudley, who seem anxious for the early Nov. FOMC meeting. At that time, the Chicago and New York govs will be lined up behind Bernanke to get the money flowing again. Any chance the good old boys in the Chicago and New York bond trading houses had any input in this suggestion?
Bernanke and friends claim the first QE was a big success in boosting the GDP rate and reducing unemployment. The QE was in conjunction with the government's massive spending plan. It is a misnomer to label that plan a stimulus bill, rather it spent lots of money to 'save jobs' mostly in the public sector. As the federal funds have been depleted, state and local US governments are turning to the tax exempt bonds to replace the revenue reduction caused by the recession.
A recent study by Merideth Whitney said that the next Federal bail out will be the states. Such a bail out would be divisive, taking money from the prudent and giving it to the spendthrifts say in California or Illinois. No problem so far, however, as the easy money is there to postpone the pain. This week the muni bond houses have over $12B bonds to peddle. Georgia, a more credit worthy state sold $654M at 2.48%, New York City is borrowing 1.3B today, the City of Chicago is raising $1.08B to refinance Navy Pier and their convention center, Pennsylvania has $387 in tax exempts to sell, and the Detroit city schools needs $211M to keep educating. The list goes on. No wonder the big city Fed govs want cheap money to keep the coffers of the bond houses full, and the status quo in the communities.
With Bernanke about to commence with QEII, The Bank of Japan following suit and the Bank of England making noises like they want to join the QE club, some are calling this the currency wars. This morning, quotes in Bloomberg, Joseph Stiglitz said:
"“Fed policy was supposed to reignite the American
economy, but it’s not doing that,” Stiglitz, a professor at
Columbia University in New York since 2001, said in a Bloomberg
Television interview today. “The flood of liquidity is going
abroad and causing problems all over the world.” Continuing he says.....
An expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet, now under
consideration by central bank policy makers, would provide only
slight stimulus to the U.S. economy, Stiglitz said.
Such a move “might help a little bit in the U.S., causing
a lot of problems around the world and not actually addressing
the fundamental problems here at home,” he said.
It does look like the currency wars are heating up. This morning Treasury Sec. Geithner, sounding like a populist Democrat running for re-election accused the Chinese and their undervalued Chinese yuan as the biggest problem. The head of the IMF, Dominique Strauss-Kahn advised against using currencies as "policy weapons" and said in the Financial Times:
"Translated into action, such an idea would represent a very serious risk
to the global recovery...Any such approach would have a negative and
very damaging longer-run impact.”
At the currency futures markets the pace is quickening. Total open interest in the six major currencies was up over 22,000 contracts yesterday, and the OI in euro options was up 13,129 to 347,848 contracts. Daily trade in the euro futures was 365,179 contracts. For currency traders, Friday will be a day of joy or sadness. Since I am traveling Friday, and will be out of the country next week, I'm going to take a pass on trading recommendations for the balance of the week..
Author: Ralph Shell - ForexRazor Analyst - Graduated from a small Ohio liberal arts college. Graduate studies in economics and history at Duke University. Ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets. Former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. Member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years.