Last week the USD gained almost 300 pips as the Bank of Japan aggressively sold over $20 yen and bought the USD. Since that activity, trade in the yen has become moribund, trading in a mere 70 point range. While firm global equities has cooled the specs desire to buy the yen for safety reasons, fear that the BOJ will enter the market with another $5 or $10B yen to sell is a cause of mortal fear.
As time goes buy without further action from the BOJ, speculators are likely to test the resolve of the Japanese Gov to weaken the yen. If we get a heavy dose of bear news, perhaps some of the safety conscious bears will again try to buy the yen.
The Japanese do have a myriad of serious problems, so many, that any sane person needs to reexamine why they are buying the yen. We do not wish to be redundant, but consider the following;
1. The Japanese debt to GDP is about 200%, among the highest in the world.
2. Japanese tax receipts cover only half of the Japanese governments expenditures, the rest financed with new loans.
3. The Japanese population is aging and shrinking in numbers, not the demographic composition which supports an expanding consumer economy.
4. During their working years the Japanese people were super savers, accumulating an estimated $15T, much of which is invested in Japanese government bonds, but............
5. The aging Japanese population has reached the point where they are redeeming more bonds than they are buying, which at some time will make it more difficult for the government to sell new bond issues.
6. Financing the massive government deficit is possible only because the interest rates are so very low. Two year paper in Japan yields only .14%, and 10 year notes, a lofty 1.06%.
7. If the new government is able to pump so much liquidity into the economy that inflation rather than deflation is the problem, are these rates not going to work higher? Higher rates will tax the ability of the gov to meet their obligations.
There may be another problem confronting the Japanese and their auto industry in the future. For decades the quality and value of Japanese cars enabled them to build and sell these cars through out the world. So successful were Toyota, Honda, Nissan and the other companies that their companies and sales spanned the globe.
As the auto industry success grew, and profits ballooned new competition arose. Korean car companies, with cheaper labor, duplicated the Japanese quality, and followed in the Japanese tradition, by expanding their sales through out the world. Mexico, Brazil, and Thailand also became the production platforms for many companies to compete with the older higher cost Japanese car plants.
The new Japanese competition may come from a familiar company but with a new owner. General Motors is preparing a public offering later this year. There are hints coming from Washington the buyer for a percentage of GM is going to be the Chinese government. GM has a production presence in China now, where their cars seem to be well accepted. This might be a way for the Chinese to dump billions of their US Treasuries in return for ownership a global trademark. Combine the existing GM technology with the inexpensive Chinese labor, this would be strong competition for the Japanese auto manufacturers.
Long time forgotten are the days when Charley Wilson, former GM President, and later President Eisenhower's Secretary of Defense said when testifying in congress, "What is good for General Motors, is good for America."
Japan, as we have mentioned has a lot of problems, perhaps including her ability to compete in the global economy going forward. For these reasons we wish to buy the USD and sell the yen on a little pull back to the 84.50 area if given the chance.
Author: Ralph Shell - ForexRazor Analyst - Graduated from a small Ohio liberal arts college. Graduate studies in economics and history at Duke University. Ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets. Former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. Member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years.