Profit Mongers @ 11:17 PM, Monday September 13 2010
Hey folks,
Due to the bullish price action we've seen due to the increased risk appetite and positive sentiment on the EUR/USD, we've rallied to a point where EUR/USD looks like a pretty good sell on the daily and 4hr charts near the top of a potential wedge or consolidation range, so I'm getting short here on EUR/USD between 1.2850 and 1.2890 (now 1.2873) and using a 50-80 pip SL looking for 70-150 pip TP down.
EUR/GBP continues to rally, but may be in for some trouble near term, so if you got long with me around 0.8240-50, take some partial profits near here (now 0.8356) if you haven't already. Ultimately I'm looking for a rally to around 0.8600, but it won't be a one way street and may take awhile.
In news Monday, we saw NZ Retail sales come out only a bit low, but we still saw similar downward price action to what was described in Monday's signal with 50 pips down so far. In news Tuesday:
0430 UK CPI y/y headline (3.0% expected) - This report has gone sleepy with no deviations since May of this year, and even then there wasn't a large move. However, UK news has been hot in the past couple of months, so my plan is to trust a 0.2% deviation for a solid retracement trade, but let a 0.1% deviation go unless there are other reasons to get in.
--If it comes out at 3.2% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40-50 pips in 1-3 minutes, and have a good chance of a second surge higher after a 50% retracement.
--If it comes out at 2.8% or lower, GBP/USD should fall 40-50 pips in 1-3 minutes, and have a good chance of a second drop lower after a 50% retracement.
0500 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (10.0 expected) - This report does not have a good recent track record, but if a 7-10 deviation is hit, it will usually spike for about 30 pips. Aside from a spike trade, I don't think it's worth trading given the other factors on the Euro right now.
If it comes out at 20.0 or higher, EUR/USD should rally 30 pips quickly.
If it comes out at 0.0 or negative, EUR/USD should fall 30 pips quickly.
0830 US Retail Sales Ex Autos m/m (0.3% expected) - This report should hit 35-50 pips in the first few minutes if a trigger is hit, and if there's a decent (~50%) retracement in the first half hour, it should be worth a trade as well.
If it comes out at 0.8% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 40-50 pips.
If it comes out at -0.2% or lower, USD/JPY should fall 40-50 pips.
That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. Feel free to email me with any questions at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com
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Sir Pipsalot
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