Profit Mongers @ 10:48 PM, Sunday September 12 2010
Hey folks,
Some risk appetite revolving around Chinese growth and a favorable ruling from the Bassel III conference has helped propel risk pairs like AUD and NZD higher, but also EUR/USD up through the trading range from late last week forcing me out of my EUR/USD short and into a more neutral stance for now. I need to see a little more price action Monday to regain a confident short term outlook on EUR/USD moving forward.
I'm also still neutral on GBP/USD looking more for session based opportunities than swing trades for now.
EUR/GBP however has worked quite well and is up 50+ pips since my buy recommendation from 0.8250 Friday. It has worked off the bottom of it's sloping channel and is looking good for it's 90-340 pips TP.
In news Friday, we saw CAD Employment come in just slightly higher, and Unemployment Rate just slightly worse, so we had a temporary 30-40 pip move down based on the Employment number, but the drop in USD/CAD was unsustainable and a no trade based on our triggers. In news Monday:
1845 NZ Retail Sales m/m (0.0% expected) - When triggers are hit, this report generally moves about 20-30 pips in the first minute. After that, there's about a 60% chance for further pips on afterspikes for about 40-50 pips in the first 10-30 minutes, and reattempts at the 40-50 pip mark (after a 40-80% pullback) and possible breakouts to 80-100 pips total over the next 2-6 hours. Also look at the Ex-Auto number (0.1% expected) to make sure there's no conflicts.
Based on these tendencies, I may take a short term scalp to make money in those first 10-30 minutes, but I'll probably close that out and put in a limit order to get in on a retracement later on and look for profits consistent with what I described above.
--If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, NZD/USD should rally 20-30 pips initially, and likely 40-50 pips higher over 10-30 minutes.
--If it comes out at -0.5% or lower, NZD/USD should fall 20-30 pips initially and likely 40-50 pips lower over 10-30 minutes.
That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. Feel free to email me with any questions at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com
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Sir Pipsalot
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