Ralph Shell @ 1:06 PM, Thursday September 09 2010
Today's US trade balance was released this morning. The trade deficit surprised the experts when it was reports a deficit of only $42.8B, sharply less than the $47.4B guess and the previous month's $49.8. US exports of civilian aircraft, computers and heavy machinery all increased, while imports slowed during the month, reflecting a reduction in inventory replacement.
The big US trade deficit with China continues though it was reduced in July to $25.9B, a very modest reduction from $26.2B in the previous month. Tentatively scheduled tonight is a release of the Chinese trade surplus. The estimates are a $26.9B surplus down from the previous period's $28.7B, and Chinese final numbers always seem to be very close to the guesses.
The din caused by US politicians, criticizing the Chinese for manipulating the value of the yuan, hurting our economy and taking our jobs is increasing. Treasury Secretary Geithner changed his story this morning when he criticized the Chinese for failing to let the yuan strengthen according to an interview on Bloomberg Television. NY Sen. Chuck Schumer, always searching for a camera and a microphone, today at a Finance Committee Meeting on Chinese Currency Manipulation, pushed his bill to limit Chinese unfair currency advantage. In China, President Obama's chief economic adviser, Larry Summers is meeting Wen Jiabao where the currency issue is being discussed. As we approach Senate and House hearing next week, look for the chatter to increase, and blaming the Chinese, might direct some anger by the public away from the current Washington group.
There is no doubt that a weaken USD would benefit domestic manufacturing. Today a Bloomberg story about Ford Motors provides a classic example. They reported:
Ford Said to Reverse Plans to Make SUV in Kentucky for Export
By Keith Naughton and Jeff Green - Sep 9, 2010
"Ford Motor Co. has canceled plans to move production of a small sport-utility vehicle from Europe to Kentucky as currency exchange rates no longer favor U.S. production, according to two people familiar with the decision......
Ford had planned to shift the Kuga model next year to Louisville from Saarlouis, Germany, to take advantage of lower labor costs and the weaker dollar, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the plan is private. With the euro falling, Ford plans to continue producing the Kuga in Germany, the people said.
.....The euro has fallen 14 percent against the dollar since Ford reached a tentative deal with the UAW in October to build the Kuga in Louisville alongside its mechanical twin, the Escape. At the time, the dollar had declined against the euro, lowering the cost of U.S.-made goods. Since then, the euro has dropped amid concerns Europe’s debt crisis may trigger another recession."
Certainly a weaker USD would help spur economic activity, look at Germany, but can we really expect that from our current group of leaders. Summers, Bernanke and Geithner are all addicted to big government and ever bigger spending as they understand the lessons taught by the late Lord Keynes. Excessive spending may eventually lead to a weaker currency but the timing of just when is a forex challenge.
How is all this publicity about currencies going to play out in the next week? Trade versus the euro is probably the broadest measure against the USD, and currently it is flirting with a downside breakout, allowing the USD to strengthen further. Perhaps the ways to approach this market and pending events is to look for a down side break to fade, buying the EUR/USD should we visit the 1.2550 area and see if the boys in Washington can still up some volatility next week.
Author: Ralph Shell - ForexRazor Analyst - Graduated from a small Ohio liberal arts college. Graduate studies in economics and history at Duke University. Ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets. Former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. Member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years.